Don’t Roll the Dice

The classic adage from the board game Risk is never to fight a ground war in Asia—adversaries will attack from all sides and your small plastic armies will fall quickly. Your companies may not be sending troops (real or plastic) into battle, but the spirit of this time-tested board game (and real life) rule still rings eerily true: Don’t get surrounded by your adversaries.

The bad news for most CEOs is that it’s too late. Every company and industry today is increasingly encircled by a line-up of challenges more diverse and fast-changing than public affairs professionals have ever encountered: A stakeholder economy where corporate decisions are inspected under the TikTok microscope and viral boycotts are just a hashtag away. A polarized political environment where the twin tides of populism and progressivism make every commercial decision political and where companies must adapt to both the red state and blue state versions of reality. Geopolitics where many are rethinking globalized trade and key power centers are contemplating divorce.

The good news for CEOs is you can still deploy the public affairs equivalent of Special Operations Command to save the operation. As our CEO recently argued in Forbes, to protect its interests and advance its objectives against pressures from all sides, your company should hire a Chief Political Risk Officer, or CPRO. Here’s what you need to know to make the case for a CPRO in your organization.

Why you need a Chief Political Risk Officer

Don’t we already have people for political risk? Maybe, but too few companies have someone like this. As our CEO explained, the CPRO is “a senior executive position that owns political and reputational risk management and has a seat at the C-suite table.” That’s different than the people you may have for geopolitical advice (as many companies increasingly do), who zero-in on country-to-country relations, because the political uncertainty today is deeper than that. You may also have government relations staff. But as our CEO explained, too few companies “empower these professionals to ensure their business strategy is proactive, resilient and adept at managing the intricacies of today’s politically charged business environment.”

A CPRO is different because they have a seat in the C-Suite where they can “dissect and interpret the political landscape” and hold real sway in business decisions as they help their company “anticipate shifts, mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities” before the damage is done.

Can’t my firm fly beneath the political storm clouds? Not anymore. As state and local politics and government grow more heated and complex, and as stakeholders increasingly scrutinize every business large or small, political risk is no longer “just the province of multinational corporations.” Nor is it a one-and-done deal. Camilla Cavendish, who was policy director for U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, calls the state of affairs today one of “rolling crises” that means “government relations is no longer a backwater department,” particularly since, at every level, “governments are becoming more interventionist” across a broadening range of industry sectors.

Is political risk really that big of a deal? Absolutely. While political risk can be hard for companies to quantify on their balance sheet, studies provide a stark reminder that it’s a huge part of the bottom line. One study found up to 30% of earnings are at risk “from government and regulatory intervention.” Another determined effective government relations reduces the misallocation of company resources by 22%. If close to a third of your firm’s earnings are on the line, why wouldn’t you place a seasoned team member in a senior executive position to ensure your organization navigates political and reputational risks smartly?

Add these skills to your CPRO job listing

Gets ahead of policymaking before it’s too late. Government can have a profound impact on a company’s ability to operate. Today’s politics are increasingly swept up in the twin tides of populism and progressivism, neither of which has sympathy for business but both of which are shaping policy across a number of industry sectors and business interests. An effective CPRO has an acute awareness of how the political and policy landscape impacts operations, supply chains, and market opportunities and ensures your voice is heard in policy debates before it’s too late.

Steers the company clear of reputational hazards. With today’s heightened consumer activism, the CPRO’s role in decision-making is crucial, as brand equity—a valuable and hard-to-rebuild resource—can be easily damaged, with real and lasting financial costs. A good CPRO understands we are living in a post-Bud Light era in which anyone can be a Target, so having his or her counsel from the beginning can safeguard your company’s brand and reputation.

Leverages government policy objectives for the firm’s best interest. Government and industry are becoming more and more intertwined. From green infrastructure investments to rebuilding strategic manufacturing capacity to revitalizing downtown areas, a sharp CPRO can make crucial connections between policymakers’ objectives and your business interests, resulting in valuable incentives like tax abatements, loan guarantees, and other financial and reputational boosts.

Those who are ahead of the curve get to shape it

As the wise sage Vizzini warned, don’t fall “victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous of which is, ‘never get involved in a land war in Asia,’” but a close contender of which is don’t navigate a complex political landscape without the acumen of a seasoned public affairs professional. Avoiding this blunder means your business can not only hold its position but gain ground even as you face pressure from all sides.

Positioning the CPRO at the forefront of decision-making, equipped with the necessary resources, is as necessary as having a CFO for financial stewardship or a COO for operational excellence. No business would operate without the latter two in place. In today’s operating environment, the same should be said for a Chief Political Risk Officer.

The revolution will not be computerized

Here’s What You Need To Know
If you are a public affairs professional in any industry, you should know by now that artificial intelligence (AI) and how it is regulated will impact the company or industry you represent. Even if your organization chooses to skip the AI revolution (good luck), your competitors, vendors, customers – even activists who scrutinize your company – will join it.

Revolutions can get messy and information comes at a premium for those in the trenches –especially in a policy fight as fast-moving and pervasive as AI regulation. You are likely familiar with some of the top stories in this AI fight – election disinformation bills, copyright lawsuits, labor concerns, and potential bias in AI models – but behind the scenes is an entire world of policymakers racing to pass hard-hitting, highly-prescriptive mandates and a growing range of stakeholders working equally hard to shape the debate before many firms are paying close attention.

To ensure you can navigate the AI debate in 2024 and understand how it will impact industries far from the tech sector, the analyst team at Delve has identified five key AI trends to watch this year. Here’s what you need to know to stay ahead of the debate, and you can download the full report at Delveinto.AI.

5 Key AI Trends To Watch In 2024

The Year of Agency Action. After sitting through 9 Senate AI listening sessions last fall, many lawmakers are ready to get their hands dirty with some AI legislating. Yet the chances of major tech legislation moving forward in this election year are slim. Instead, expect federal and state agencies to leap into action. 23 federal agencies have a laundry list of 150 tasks to tackle in 2024, thanks to President Biden’s AI executive order, and state agencies are taking action as well, particularly if state legislators pass a growing wave of AI bills this spring. Sharp public affairs professionals will keep an especially close eye on Washington’s independent agencies, such as the FTC, CFPB, and SEC, where ambitious Biden-appointed agency heads are using existing legal authority to advance restrictions on the use of AI, with Rite Aid learning the hard way what these agencies can already do.

States won’t wait for the Moses of Milford. Connecticut Sen. James Maroney (D), whose district includes the town of Milford, led efforts among state lawmakers to coordinate data privacy bills. Now he has organized more than 100 legislators representing more than 30 states to coordinate common legislative language on AI. When Maroney arrives with his digital tablets, they could be a game-changer across state capitals, adding to what is already shaping up to be a tidal wave of AI bills around the country. Keep an eye on courtrooms as well, where judges may address questions lawmakers are not ready to tackle. Their rulings could upend critical business practices in the AI space, or so The New York Times hopes they do.

EU-sier said than done in Europe. EU officials proclaimed victory on the AI Act in December, but getting everyone on board with the final language may be easier said than done. Some member states worry the prescriptive rules planned for advanced AI models could hinder the development of a home-grown, European AI industry, something French President Emmanuel Macron and the leading European AI companies want. Plus, an expected surge by the populist right in EU parliamentary elections this summer could further complicate the AI policy picture in Brussels. Across the channel, Labor’s anticipated win in UK elections will likely shift that government’s views on AI regulation.

Tech’s family feud goes public. California’s earthquake watch should be on full alert as fault lines multiply within Silicon Valley’s tech sector. Issues like open source, the existential risk posed by AI, and the distribution of compliance requirements along the AI supply chain are splintering the tech industry. As industry players lobby policymakers on these issues, expect the money they spend and the influence they wield to draw serious media scrutiny, as some tech-backed advocates are already learning.

Transparency will be a hidden cudgel. Powerful stakeholders are joining the AI debate, and transparency will increasingly be their weapon of choice. From labor advocacy to civil rights to consumer data privacy, organizations are making their voices heard in Washington and other capitals. Many lawmakers want to give them a helping hand with a proposed suite of transparency mandates for AI companies. When this transparency is enacted, either through legal mandate or company concession, regulators could use disclosed data to enforce legal requirements or pressure companies to make voluntary changes. Powerful advocacy groups will do the same—and where there aren’t formal transparency rules on the books, they could do their own pressure-testing of any AI tool that hits the market. Expect those results to be made very public.

Enlist now, before the AI revolution conscripts you

If you thought the dozens of elections around the world were the only big public affairs developments in 2024, think again. With so many powerful interests across so many jurisdictions working to shape AI policy this year, keeping track of the AI space is critical for any public affairs professional working in any industry.

It may be easy to track the top 10% of key AI policy developments that reach the headlines, but the law of the public affairs universe means it is something in the other 90% that will impact your interests the most. That’s why we launched Delveinto.AI, where we offer deep-dive risk assessments and daily AI policy and stakeholder tracking across key jurisdiction like Washington, state capitals, Brussels, and beyond. It is the most comprehensive, up-to-date picture you’ll find covering the AI regulatory and stakeholder world.

Head over to Delveinto.AI now to download the full report on these five key trends, and receive a free trial to the daily tracking. You can also reach out to our team directly for a briefing on how the AI policy debate will unfold in 2024.

Monumental Moves

Here’s What You Need To Know
Washington was shaken in mid-December by billionaire Ted Leonis’ announcement that his Monumental Sports will move two major sports franchises – the Washington Wizards and the Capitals – to a new $2 billion taxpayer-backed arena and entertainment complex in northern Virginia. The announcement came amidst rampant crime and waning office occupancy dampening the allure of the teams’ current home in downtown DC, an all too familiar concern across the country.

Facing higher crime, lower foot traffic from office workers, and progressive policies increasing labor and other costs of doing business, major retailers and other businesses are increasingly voting with their feet when it comes to urban investments. While corporations voting with their feet is not new, as our CEO noted in a recent Forbes column, the decision is more fraught for companies when today’s “political climate is fraught with chaos, polarization and unprecedented geopolitical uncertainties” even as “the ease of digital activism empowers stakeholders to voice their concerns and apply pressure more swiftly than ever before.”

In this new reality of the stakeholder economy, companies must consider the extent to which should they just pull up stakes for a better environment versus staying and fighting to improve the one they’re in. What do companies owe communities versus their shareholders and employees, and if the answer is just to leave bad business environments, how long until there’s no place left to go?

These are the questions facing public affairs professionals as we enter 2024, where many of these issues – crime, racial justice, worker treatment, and the economic future of urban cores – could enter the campaign debate. Here’s what you need to know to navigate these pressures effectively.

How Downtown Booms Went Bust

In the two decades leading up to the pandemic, downtowns boomed as young professionals were attracted by the proximity to numerous amenities like entertainment venues, restaurants, bars, and gyms, which allowed them to live, work, and play within a few blocks. In fact, this migration led to a population increase in nearly 80% of America’s major downtown districts in the 20 years before Covid hit, causing a widespread urban revival.

Then the Covid-19 pandemic changed downtown realities, shifting workers from office to home and emboldening progressive efforts to reshape relationships between employers and employees. These efforts dramatically increased minimum wages, added burdensome rules regarding employment practices, and made it more difficult to start and run a business in many cities even as Covid cleared out offices and drove the rise in remote and hybrid work, emptying many downtowns of office worker foot traffic critical for maintaining stores and restaurants.

At the same time, a post-George Floyd racial reckoning led to what now appears to be an overcorrection in criminal justice practices. Emptier downtowns, social unrest, and lax practices by progressive prosecutors and undermanned law enforcement have led to increased violence and emboldened organized retail crime. That’s left major retailers and other businesses finding it harder and harder to remain in urban centers as costs rise along with the danger to their property and employees.

Should Businesses Stay Or Should They Go?

It was in this context that Monumental Sports decided to move to northern Virginia, and the company is far from alone. Across the country, numerous retailers and other businesses are closing stores or shifting headquarters due to worsening business climates.

While these moves might be the correct immediate business decision, they may come with longer-term costs. Just as some Wizards and Capitals fans feel betrayed, so too do consumers, community stakeholders, and others who are left behind when retailers close stores and businesses leave for friendlier climes. They and the elected officials who represent them could have long memories, hindering potential returns or re-openings.

It also remains to be seen if voters recognize elected officials’ role in these business exits if companies do not speak out. Indeed, while political engagement can be complicated for businesses, if they do not speak out about the impact of policymakers’ decisions and actions, who will? And if no one does, how long will it take for urban centers to return as hubs of economic opportunity?

The Right Playbook For Stakeholder Engagement

Companies cannot afford to wait for the economic, social, and political debates regarding urban centers to play out. They should shape them with active engagement of both policymakers and stakeholders to ensure the policies and practices benefit businesses and the communities in which they operate. Successful engagement requires getting smart first by:

  • Thoroughly understanding the political and reputational risks and opportunities the business faces within or across jurisdictions, and what external factors like policy changes, societal trends, and geopolitical developments may be driving or influencing those risks and opportunities;
  • Comprehensively mapping the companies’ internal and external stakeholders, analyzing their interests, intentions, and influence levels to deeply understand the individuals and groups with a vested interest in the company’s activities, from customers to advocacy groups;
  • Connecting these external factors with the company’s core values, purpose, and mission, because companies are most effective at stakeholder engagement when they connect their principles with stakeholder and societal interests and communicate them transparently and consistently.

With the 2024 elections revving up, companies will face unprecedented scrutiny from policymakers and stakeholders. Companies who leverage the right insights will be able to not just anticipate but shape the debates that impact their interests in urban centers and beyond. Here at Delve, think of us as your compass, helping you build the information advantage you need to protect your interests and advance your business and policy objectives.

A Swift Reputation (Delve’s Version)

Here’s What You Need To Know
America has voted, or at least TIME’s editors, and Taylor Swift is the Person of the Year. If you are in corporate public affairs though, a more apt choice might be Dylan Mulvaney photographed in a certain swimsuit purchased at Target. That’s because while most Americans may agree on Taylor’s version, there are plenty of forces arrayed on both sides of our politics to keep us from shaking off polarization on many other cultural issues. As a result, corporate public affairs professionals are living in a post-Bud Light era in which anyone can be a Target.

In the last six months, we have seen a continuous drumbeat of consumer activism directed at even the most established brands, and unlike past boycotts and activism, it is causing real and lasting reputational damage. In the post-Bud Light era, any company, regardless of size or reputation, can become a target for public backlash and boycotts.

It is all happening as companies learn how challenging it can be to navigate our new stakeholder economy. As our CEO noted recently in Forbes, “the ease of digital activism empowers stakeholders to voice their concerns and apply pressure more swiftly than ever before.” Here’s what you need to know to navigate this newly complex landscape.

Everything Has Changed

Today’s boycotts are far from the grassroots movements of the past. They have evolved into highly professionalized, digitized, and globalized campaigns. Activist groups, often perceived by the media as the ‘Davids’ in a battle against corporate ‘Goliaths’, are increasingly well-resourced and highly coordinated. This shift means that any public relations crisis is not just a local or isolated event but can quickly gain global attention. Any misstep by an organization can become a catalyst for these well-prepared groups, who may have been waiting for just such an opportunity to advance their broader agendas. This reality means companies must be acutely aware of potential issues into which they could inadvertently step, because once the rage machine spins up, the damage has been done.

It’s not just about defending against fair criticism; in today’s environment, scrutiny is inevitable, and attacks can come regardless of their merit. Take the attacks against companies like McDonald’s, Starbucks, and Dior for perceived support of Israel after the October 7 attacks. This new era of the stakeholder economy means constant scrutiny from a widening range of actors, including employees, investors, consumers, policymakers, the media, and beyond.

We Are Never Getting Back Together

Historically, even high-profile boycotts, such as those against Nike or Chick-fil-A, often fizzled out without long-term damage to the companies. Now, the reality has changed dramatically. Modern boycotts, fueled by social media and global connectivity, can inflict lasting damage on a brand’s reputation, severely impacting their bottom line and stakeholder relationships in an enduring way.

Today, the sting of boycotts can cause real and lasting damage. Just this year, Anheuser-Busch’s sales fell another 13.5% in the third quarter and profits fell 29% “as an ongoing backlash” over the company’s ill-fated outreach to a transgender influencer. Target saw a big drop in sales during the two quarters following “strong reaction” against its Pride merchandise – its first sales declines in six years. Now X, the company formerly known as Twitter, faces up to $75 million in lost ad revenue over allegations it has not done enough to police anti-Semitic hate speech on its platform.

This shift is partly due to the changing nature of brand equity in today’s fractured media environment. In a landscape with reduced brand loyalty and heightened consumer awareness, a company’s reputation has become more critical and valued than ever before. Once a reputational hit occurs, it can disrupt an organization’s relationship with consumers, employees, the media, and the public for the long term. These impacts are not just superficial or transient; they cause real, quantifiable damage to a company’s ability to operate.

I Knew You Were Trouble

In today’s hyper-connected and fast-paced business environment, waiting for a crisis to strike before acting is fraught with risk. Organizations must adopt a proactive stance, constantly monitoring for weak signals that could signify potential issues on the horizon. As we’ve advised before, public affairs professionals need a seat at the table in their organization’s strategic discussions to ensure their insights are incorporated into enterprise risk assessments.

That seat at the table can’t get offered only after a crisis hits. Having public affairs professionals armed with the right insights and experience anticipating and avoiding crises is critical to ensuring business decisions have political and reputational risk analysis baked into them from the start, not towards the end.

To ensure they have the right insights at that table, those public affairs professionals keen understanding of global – and local – sentiments informed by robust, systematic assessments of the policy and political landscape and the full range of stakeholders who can shape it. The time to make friends or mitigate opposition is not after a crisis hits, but before the drumbeat of a boycott or public backlash begins. Seasoned crisis communicators know how to leverage those assessments to strategize on the communication channels and messages most likely to resonate correctly with the public and stakeholders in various potential crisis scenarios.

Endgame

In navigating the treacherous waters of modern consumer activism, preparation is key, but remember, you don’t have to face these challenges alone. Delve acts as your partner in anticipating and understanding this uncertainty. Delve can bring rigorous and systematic analysis, crafted by expert risk analysts, to the crisis planning work by your internal public affairs operation and external advisors. With Delve, you’re not just preparing for potential crises; you’re equipping your team with the insights and tools you need to anticipate risks, ensuring your organization remains a step ahead in a world where proactive management is no longer a luxury, but a necessity for survival.

2024 Is Coming

Here’s What You Need To Know
83 elections in 54 countries. That’s how many campaigns public affairs professionals will have to navigate in 2024. In the U.S., that will include at least 6,477 elections for everything from President, Congress, Governors, and other state-level positions, plus tens of thousands of county, municipal, and special district positions (fun fact: America has more than 500,000 elected officials). Even though they get far less notice, these down-ballot races – from statewide constitutional offices to local officials and even more obscure regulatory commissions – hold significant power over a wide range of industry sectors and policy areas.

Despite this major impact, the media will focus on polling in marquee races and political dynamics driving the parties’ efforts to turn out voters, which often have little to do with how newly elected officials will approach business policies or industry regulation. That leaves public affairs professionals scrambling to properly assess the candidates and anticipate the policy debates to come. Here’s what you need to know to avoid the scramble.

Down Ballot Doesn’t Mean Off the Radar

Down-ballot races are crucial to shaping everything from antitrust litigation to investment climates to environment regulations and beyond. Take state Attorneys General, like Ohio’s Dave Yost who is suing pharmacy benefits managers, or state Treasurers, such as West Virginia’s Riley Moore or Utah’s Marlo Oaks who are pressuring asset managers and banks over ESG commitments. As we noted last year, these officials’ policy activity has made campaigns for these offices far more robust.

Similarly, local and county governmental bodies directly impact a diverse array of business operations. County and municipal officials are placing moratoriums on solar or wind projects, restricting AI use in hiring, hiking minimum wages for restaurant workers, banning single-use plastics, and much more. As a result, even previously obscure bodies like state public utility commissions are seeing an uptick in campaign action as more stakeholders seek to shape the work of these bodies.

For businesses and the public affairs professionals who guide them, a deep understanding of who is running for these offices as well as who and what shapes candidates’ views on your issue set is crucial. Even if you do not have immediate matters before them, their campaign rhetoric and actions once in office will impact the policy landscape when you do.

What Happens in Primaries Doesn’t Stay in Primaries

As we’ve highlighted previously, the marketplace of ideas does not strictly adhere to candidates’ win-loss records. Primary candidates’ influence in particularly can surpass their electoral outcomes. Their policy proposals, whether innovative or disruptive, can shift the political landscape and resonate with voters and politicians, irrespective of election results. As the twin tides of populism and progressivism shape each party’s policy agenda, the country’s direction in turn is being molded by these two extreme ends of the political spectrum. This ripple effect of primary contenders’ ideas, coupled with the potential for candidates who come up short at the polls to secure appointments to influential government roles, shows why it is important for public affairs professionals to closely monitor and understand the ideological currents shaping campaigns early in the election cycle.

Ballot Battle Royale Goes Beyond Candidates

Ballot initiatives and referenda are key yet often overlooked elements of elections. Both parties use them strategically to mobilize their voter base and influence the electorate on contentious issues. Earlier this month in Ohio, Democrats got a test run of a ballot measure to enshrine reproductive rights into the state constitution, and its success quickly prompted activists to set their sights on other states to help boost Democratic turnout in 2024. Republicans have leveraged this strategy as well.

Yet initiatives are not just about leveraging social and cultural issues to spike turnout. They can directly impact businesses on major issues like environmental and labor regulations. Activists and industry advocate alike use them to bypass  or overturn polarized legislatures. While early in the cycle, already initiatives have been filed on critical issues like healthcare, taxation, and energy. Businesses need proactive engagement on which initiatives or referenda may reach next November’s ballot – and who is fueling interest in them.

The Media Is More Heat and Noise than Light or Insight

The mainstream media’s penchant for “horse race” journalism, which concentrates on poll standings and campaign strategies, poses a significant challenge for public affairs professionals. The emphasis on political rivalries and the dynamic of who’s leading or lagging comes at the expense of substantive policy discussions and simplifies complex political landscapes. Reporting that sidelines nuanced policy impacts and long-term consequences of election outcomes leaves public affairs professionals in a media environment rich in speculation and punditry yet lacking in the analysis they need to thoroughly assess candidates and their plans to govern.

Likewise, most of today’s media have aligned along ideological lines to cater to particular audiences, with biased reporters driving narratives that resonate with their selected news consumers while omitting or misrepresenting contrary information. Just as many deride politicians of leveraging redistricting to “choose their voters,” media companies leverage agenda-driven worldviews to cultivate their reader- or viewership, creating echo chambers where complex issues are reduced to binary debates. This environment makes it difficult for public affairs professionals to obtain facts and meaningful analysis.

Now Is the Time to Find Your Friends and Understand Your Opponents

Right now, many public affairs professionals are in the midst of annual budgeting processes to ensure they have the necessary resources to protect and advance their organization’s interests as the 2024 campaign unfolds. At Delve, our well-honed playbook helps you identify and secure the resources you need for public affairs success, starting with a risk assessment on which issues and jurisdictions are likely to pose the greatest challenges (or opportunities) and stakeholder mapping that surfaces potential allies and likely opponents among candidates as well as other groups and individuals shaping the campaign debate and the policymaking that follows.

Putting your public affairs operation at an information advantage in 2024 requires a focus that extends beyond top-tier races, recognizing the significant influence of down-ballot positions on policy and regulation and digging deep to remain attuned to the evolving political landscape. To cut through the noise of “horse race” journalism and partisan narratives, public affairs experts need reliable, in-depth analysis from a trusted partner. As you prepare for the coming election cycle, Delve is here to give you a decisive edge and empower you to not just anticipate the future but shape it.

WOE is U.S.

Here’s What You Need To Know
Is Bidenomics a boom or a bust? The U.S. economy reportedly grew at a fast 4.9% annualized pace in the third quarter, “payrolls soared” in September as unemployment remained under 4%, and analysts are raising their economic forecasts. Yet, despite The White House spending the past four months insisting “Bidenomics is working,” Americans remain unconvinced and even the President’s allies worry his economic bear hug has been a “blunder.” What is driving this disconnect should worry every public affairs professional.

While Democrats think it’s a messaging conundrum, the reality is more fundamental: President Biden has overseen what President Trump started: a Washington-Ordered Economy that leverages public funding to advance industrial policies that in turn drive investment. Yet, all that government money flooding the economy has spiked inflation, leaving many Americans treading water.

With Washington’s gaze remaining too long on macroeconomic indicators that do not match Americans’ microeconomic experience, policymakers striving for real economic growth, public affairs professionals trying to shape their thinking, and companies leveraging government incentives may all need to rethink their embrace of Washington-directed investments. Here’s what you need to know to navigate this new economic reality.

Washington’s Economic Barometer Is Broken

While the macroeconomic indicators suggest the economy is “revving up,” most Americans feel run over. That’s because inflation remains high, meaning “a homebuyer’s dollar goes about half as far as it did at the end of 2020,” rent affordability is at its lowest level in decades, and the typical American household is spending about $730 per month more than it did a year ago, even as inflation-adjusted wages have decreased since President Biden took office.

Policymakers, their teams, and the public affairs professionals that shape the Washington debate have long relied on macroeconomic indicators like stock market indices, unemployment rate, and the price of consumer goods like groceries and gasoline to assess the nation’s economy and inform policy decisions. Yet today, two of these three indicators are increasingly disconnected from economic reality.

Indeed, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged in his annual Jackson Hole speech these “uncertainties” leave the Fed and other policymakers “navigating by the stars under cloudy skies.” This disconnect is not limited to the U.S. At the same event, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned we are entering a “new age” in which “past regularities may no longer be a good guide for how the economy works.”

Trouble With The (Phillips) Curve

While stock markets often monopolize political attention, the truth, as we noted several years ago, is “The Stock Market Used To Tell Us How the Economy Is Doing. Not Anymore.” That’s in large part because much of the economy now resides within the private markets. Financial expert Greg Crabtree, based on his 100-company model of small and medium-sized private businesses, suggests the ‘real’ economy may already be in a recession, an alarming reality largely overlooked by Washington.

Meanwhile, the conventional fixation on the headline unemployment rate has been losing its relevance for years. We first explained why “the unemployment rate is dead” in an Obama-era analysis and revisited it under Trump. Between a persistent decline in the labor force participation rate, driven by demographic shifts, and under Biden the growth in workers holding multiple part-time gigs, the topline unemployment rate is no longer describes most voters’ reality.

Yet, as highlighted in Chair Powell’s recent speech, policymakers continue to rely on the discredited Phillips Curve, linking employment and inflation even as the modern economic landscape challenges this direct relationship. Low inflation can coexist with low unemployment and strong economic growth, just as low employment currently coexists with rampant inflation.

That leaves consumer prices like gas and groceries as the last compelling economic statistic left standing when it comes to swaying voters. Just as that certainly has implications on the campaign trail, this new reality must also shape policymaking and advocacy in Washington.

Yet Washington Is More In Charge Than Ever

Even as the metrics Washington watches are more disconnected from economic reality, Washington’s influence over the economy has reached unprecedented levels. Elected officials in both parties, corporate leaders, and investors all have embraced a post-COVID era marked by industrial policy initiatives to address supply chain woes, thwart China’s influence, reignite America’s manufacturing base, and address climate change.

While the injection of funds from the government can help mitigate the increased costs and regulatory pressures needed to achieve these policy goals, it requires abdicating corporate autonomy as political agendas become embedded in business strategy. Take for example:

Once government is investing in your sector, expect scrutiny and political pressures to follow. Just as pressure built on firms that took COVID-era assistance, companies taking advantage of today’s government largess can expect elected officials and the public to probe – fairly and unfairly. Indeed, infrastructure developers and cleantech firms with foreign involvement already face pushback for making U.S. investments incentivized by government policies.

Even As Washington Faces Increased Political Chaos

As the “Washington Ordered Economy” unfolds within an era of hyper-polarized governance where commerce is increasingly entangled in political agendas, the scrutiny and pressure on companies will only rise, even as these policies lack certainty. Current laws, especially those rammed through by one party without the support from the other, are susceptible to change or repeal when control of government changes hands. In an era where nearly every election has been a change election, that should give companies real pause.

Business leaders face the daunting task of preparing for heightened scrutiny across diverse jurisdictions, amplified by a broader range of stakeholders and an expanding array of intricate issues, even as they rely on Washington to advance their economic interests in an economy Washington understands less and less. Surviving and thriving in this complex landscape means taking a proactive approach to understanding and mitigating constantly evolving dynamics between government and commerce. Here at Delve, we offer a playbook to do just that.

Truth or Consequences

Here’s What You Need To Know
The barbaric and brutal terrorist attacks in Israel leave us deeply shaken. Our hearts ache for the families, friends, and loved ones who are bearing the brunt of this senseless violence. This post includes resources to help at this difficult time.

At the same time, as risk advisors, we must consider the broader implications of these attacks on Israel, the Jewish community, and those who stand in solidarity with the Jewish people. It is time for many to face hard truths.

Delve has always been at the forefront of supporting organizations combatting anti-Semitism. While the focus is rightly on the humanitarian and security aspects of these attacks, every modern conflict has a public affairs dimension. As Israel appropriately responds to these unprovoked atrocities, public affairs professionals need be well-informed about the complex conflict and its impact on corporate public affairs. Here’s what you need to know.

Social Impact Collides With Geopolitics

In recent years, companies have increasingly integrated social issues and causes into their corporate identities. Whether this alignment with progressive politics was intended or not, many of the same groups that applauded corporate stances on racial inequality, LGBT+ rights, and similar issues are not taking a similar stance on the horrific violence in Israel. Many are inexplicably remaining silent, or worse, excusing or justifying the attacks.

While more recent geopolitical clashes like Putin’s invasion of Ukraine proved easy messaging for most companies across the Western world, they now face a critical juncture where these progressive values collide with the complexities of geopolitics. Companies supporting Ukraine were not expected to show concern for the impact of Putin’s war on Russian citizens, and standing in solidarity with Israel against Hamas will test companies’ willingness to reject false narratives. Nor will it be the last test of how companies handle fraught international conflicts.

Corporate leaders who have been outspoken in past social and geopolitical debates now find themselves under the microscope. After setting a precedent for speaking out, many leaders were caught unprepared this past week. Their silence could have consequences: 35 U.S. states have laws restricting investments and state business with companies that do not support Israel, and nearly as many states have similar restrictions on companies doing business with Iran, which is widely seen as aiding the recent attacks.

Our Civil Institutions Can’t Handle Today’s Challenges

Current events serve as a poignant reminder of the challenges stemming from the fragility of governmental and civil institutions. This year, after five elections in three years, Israel saw the greatest civil unrest in its history as it debated judicial reforms, and in the wake of the violence questions remain about how Israel’s security apparatus missed the threat. In the U.S., the attacks came just days after the U.S. House of Representatives removed a sitting Speaker for the first time in history, putting American aid to Israel in jeopardy. House Foreign Relations Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-TX) called the dysfunction “a dangerous game.”

As we have noted for some time, “Private businesses have become the most trusted institutions in the United States as Americans have become increasingly divided by politics.” That means increased pressure to speak out on a broader range of issues. As trust in civil institutions keeps falling and basic tasks of government become more difficult, that pressure to fill the gap will only grow.

Media’s Misinformation Campaign

The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict has brought into sharp focus the critical issue of mis- and dis-information in today’s media landscape. While governments and commentators have focused on its spread on social media, for too many journalists it has become an easy excuse to reject uncomfortable truths about the conflict and the nature of the attack. A Los Angeles Times investigative reporter, for example, persistently questioned incidents of rape and beheadings attributed to Hamas, and both CBS News and New York Times changed headlines in ways that downplay Hamas’ atrocities. As documented by Newsbusters, those outlets are far from alone in setting a media narrative defensive of, if not sympathetic to, Hamas terrorists in their coverage of the conflict. The biased coverage and agenda-driven narratives of the media serve as a reminder for public affairs professionals: while viral misrepresentations or deepfakes are dangerous, more frequently “the real challenge is not how widespread the fake news is, but rather how fake the real news can be.”

America Awakes To Its Rotting Academia

Student activists expressing support for Palestine and Hamas have surprised many Americans, and many colleges and universities failed to respond appropriately. Most conspicuous was a statement by more than 30 Harvard student organizations blaming the Israeli government “entirely” for the violence. Harvard’s president struggled to respond even as prominent voices like former Clinton Treasury Secretary Larry Summers expressed disappointment. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, who spoke for a number of CEOs, demanded names of the signatories “to insure that none of us inadvertently hire” them. Other elite institutions faced similar predicaments and similar opprobrium, a potential watershed moment for corporate concern over higher education’s progressive shift.

While many of these institutions readily condemned various social and political issues, their silence on this matter is notable. Those tracking how anti-Semitism masquerades as progressive inclusivity on campus were not surprised. Still, prominent higher education institutions’ deafening silence implicitly endorses a hateful ideology amidst disturbing student activism in solidarity with Hamas’ attacks. Similarly, corporate executives spoke out about racial injustice, LGBT+ rights, and other social and political issues in recent years, but many have remained silent or neutral in the current conflict.

DEI’s Blindspot

Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives intended to address discrimination and foster inclusivity  have a concerning blind spot. Too many DEI efforts perpetuate anti-Semitic attitudes and mistreatment of Jews. The weaponization of DEI measures to unfairly portray Jewish students and Israel as oppressors undermine the very ideals DEI initiatives claim to promote. Instances like Derron Borders, the diversity and inclusion director at Cornell University’s Johnson School of Management, referring to Hamas terror attacks as ‘the resistance’ underscore DEI leaders’ failure to eschew hateful rhetoric and violence-inciting speech.

DEI initiatives are at an inflection point in which they must address this blind spot to preserve their principles of inclusivity and free expression. Failing to do so not only endangers the well-being of Jewish students but calls into question the effectiveness of DEI initiatives. This challenge extends beyond campus to companies that embraced DEI initiatives following George Floyd’s murder but now face scrutiny from conservatives. As public awareness of how DEI programs and practitioners treat Jews increases, that scrutiny may transcend partisan divides.

Despite This Past Week’s Clarity, Support For Israel Is Already Evaporating

Last Sunday’s news programs, traditionally influential in Washington discourse, focused questions on civilians in Gaza, neglecting Hamas’ devastating atrocities, Israel’s right to safeguard its citizens, or the anxieties of Jews near and far from Israel. The gruesome and unprecedented attacks cannot fade from memories and allow the conflict to shift into its typical narrative.

As Natan Sharansky, the Soviet Jewish political prisoner who reached freedom in Israel, wrote, “In dictatorships you need courage to fight evil; in the free world you need courage to see evil.” Today, companies and institutions in democratic nations must have courage to see beyond comfortable narratives and support Israel as it confronts the evil exposed by these attacks.

How You Can Help

The situation in the Middle East is complex and impacts the entire global Jewish community. Delve can assist you in better understanding and addressing this issue. To start, we encourage you to join us in supporting these organizations addressing critical needs in Israel and beyond:

  • United Hatzalah is a volunteer EMS organization aiding Israel’s medical and humanitarian needs.
  • Magen David Adom supports frontline medical responders in Israel – and Michael Bloomberg is currently matching donations.
  • Friends of the Israel Defense Forces directly supports the men and women defending Israel from further attack – with Haim and Cheryl Saban matching donations.
  • Israel on Campus Coalition coordinates efforts to combat anti-Semitism on U.S. campuses to ensure they remain safe for Jews.

Storm Warning

Here’s What You Need To Know
The angst in the lead up to this past weekend’s brush with a federal government shutdown felt different. While shutdowns always dominate conversations in Washington, this time the buzz roared in C-suites and boardrooms far beyond the Beltway. That’s because more and more sectors have embraced what President Biden’s National Security Advisor earlier this year called a “new Washington consensus” of central planning, mandates, and subsidies across a number of key economic sectors.

The shutdown near-miss is a stark reminder of how uneasy that consensus might be in a hyperpolarized, closely divided country with political institutions that often seem incapable of basic functioning. Yet, at the same time, more corporate sectors than ever hope to reap benefits from Washington-set industrial policies even as they are caught in the crosshairs of those vying for control of the very same political institutions that set those policies.

For public affairs professionals, this new reality brings greater pressure. Here’s what they need to know as they help their organizations navigate it.

Boosts from industrial policy come at the cost of certainty

In the past several years, billions if not trillions of investment decisions have been driven by measures from Washington promising tax and financing incentives thanks to newly passed laws like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, CHIPS and Science Act, Inflation Reduction Act, and other similar measures. These laws heralded a new age of public-private collaboration intended to advance American economic might in what The White House calls “a modern American industrial strategy.”

Yet, as the shutdown game of chicken reminded corporate executives, this strategy relies on a house of cards buffeted by gusts of wind from the twin tides of progressivism and populism. As companies leverage these public incentives, they entrust their shareholders’ interests to the whims of slim majorities in divided, polarized government. As sharp-thinking friend of Delve Bruce Mehlman recently noted, “change is the new normal” in Washington, with the “average duration of control” cut in nearly half in the past two decades from what the country experienced last century. That means beyond the immediate question of whether the government will be funded beyond the next 45 days, companies must also anticipate the potential for future Congresses to cancel or revise the promises made by recent Congresses. For example, a Republican presidency and/or Congress in 2025 could seek to defund clean energy incentives and other funds distrusted by their political base of support – by one count, they have already attempted to do so 16 times this year.

WOE is Me (and You)

The corporate embrace of industrial policy is just one facet of what former Bush Administration official and World Bank President Robert Zoellick has termed “the Washington Ordered Economy” (WOE). While populists and progressives may have different reasons for doing so, both agree the government in Washington needs more of a say in where and how the private sector invests and grows. The White House’s “new Washington consensus,” Zoellick argues, means “Washington planning, mandates and financing” directing the economy. That’s good if your industry or investment is favored by the political winds, but costly if it is not.

Regardless of whether they are in favor at any particular political moment, a Washington-Ordered Economy might bring companies a lot of disorder thanks to the uncertainty of executive action governing how and where they can invest and operate. That’s because while executive orders and regulatory changes may align with the priorities of the current administration, take President Biden’s tightening of EV tax credits for example, they can also be subject to legal challenges and potential reversal by future administrations. This unpredictability can make it exceptionally challenging for businesses to formulate long-term strategic decisions and investments, as they must navigate a landscape where the rules, at both the federal and state levels, are susceptible to shifts in political direction.

Spring and Summer 2023 Was Just a Preview. Get Ready for the Main Event.

The government shutdown drama is not happening in a vacuum, but within the broader politicization of commerce, both in our Nation’s Capital and across the nation. An expanding array of policymakers and stakeholders fervently expect companies and industries to bend to their particular views on today’s policy, politics, and culture. The Bud Light and Target controversies earlier this year offered a glimpse of how these challenges can rapidly escalate.

While polarization in Washington breeds gridlock and uncertainty for businesses, polarization across states is accelerating the policy gap between red and blue states. In 2023, single party control of states reached a new high, with 140 million Americans living under Democratic control and nearly as many under Republican control. Such domination by one party in state government mean fewer checks on partisan excesses, straining businesses’ ability to straddle the growing policy gap on a broadening range of issues, including fossil fuels and e-commerce.

2024 Will Only Up the Ante – How Are You Getting Prepared?

This new environment is not a fleeting disturbance; it’s a permanent fixture for now . A discernible shift has occurred in how politicians and regulators harness businesses as tools to advance their partisan agendas. The truth is skepticism, scrutiny, and unrelenting pressure will continue to mount, placing businesses at an even greater risk of becoming collateral damage in the political battles of our time. As the 2024 election season gains momentum up and down the ballot, the question is not whether this storm will persist but how well-prepared businesses will be to weather it.

Taking a stand or choosing neutrality can alienate critical policymakers and stakeholders with divergent views. Sustaining trust amid those pressures requires unwavering effort and vigilance amidst growing politicization. Businesses must urgently assess upcoming risks and stay aware of all influencing factors to avoid severe reputational and financial damage in this highly politicized, high-stakes environment. To avoid this damage, public affairs professionals need a playbook to stay ahead. Here at Delve, we are already helping public affairs professionals build their playbooks to ensure they are ready to engage smartly and proactively as the 2024 legislative and political season draws closer.

Welcome to the Multiplex

Here’s What You Need To Know
If the rulebook for artificial intelligence (AI) is a movie franchise, get ready for more spin-offs than even a Marvel executive could dream up. That’s because policymakers around the globe each want to be their own superhero in the race to restrain what many believe is a runaway new technology. As a result, public affairs professionals across every industry sector find themselves standing before a multiplex of policy theaters, each screening its own version of the guardrails needed for AI.

Today, we are launching DelveInto.AI, a new offering specifically designed for those who need more than a seat in the AI regulatory debate theater, but a role in writing the screenplay. In the race to develop and utilize AI, firms and investors must be keyed in to the emerging policy landscape, and Delve’s new offering will help them and the public affairs advisors they rely on to do just that, because waiting until this movie is streaming will cause a lot more than FOMO. Here’s what you need to know to secure your AI information advantage.

“Techlash” = Payback

Policymakers Regret “Mistakes Of The Past.” Policymakers took a hands-off approach to regulation of the internet in the 1990s and the spread of mobile apps and social media platforms in the 2010s. After many years of allowing industry to “move fast and break things,” policymakers and many in the public want to avoid what Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) called “the mistakes of the past.” From concerns about the impact of social media on children to content moderation to what some claim are anticompetitive practices in Big Tech, policymakers and their constituents are nursing wounds from their ongoing tussles with Big Tech. This “techlash” could fuel a hasty policymaking process that decommissions AI innovators before their products see the light of day.

The Curtain Is Rising on AI Regulation Across the U.S.

No State of Waiting. On one screen in the multiplex of AI policy theaters are state-level policymakers who show no interest in waiting for Washington to act. Years of experience bringing Big Tech to court and pushing through laws on issues like data privacy have battle-hardened state officials for this moment. States like Colorado, Connecticut, and Illinois have already passed legislation to address AI issues such as algorithmic discrimination. Other states, including California, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island have seen bills introduced that would broadly regulate generative AI. Expect this early trickle of bills to turn into a tidal wave in next year’s legislative sessions with policymakers, stakeholders, and industry scrambling to add their own voice to the debate.

In Delve’s U.S. Nationwide Risk Assessment, we identified eight key factors driving which states are likely to advance AI policies in the coming year, and what issues are top of mind for state policymakers to address.

Washington’s Whole Of Government Approach. Another screening of AI rules is happening at the federal level, where policymakers at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue are crafting regulations and coordinating closely with big industry players to set standards that are shaping the terms of the debate. The Biden Administration is bringing to bear on AI the same aggressive, whole-of-government approach it has taken to tackle climate, crypto, and other hot button issues. As a result, numerous federal agencies are enforcing restrictions on the use of AI under their existing authority and are taking additional rulemaking action based on Biden’s forthcoming executive orders. This summer, Biden scored voluntary commitments from leading AI companies to self-regulate, which the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) plans to enforce. This past week, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) hosted a who’s who of AI executives and labor and civil rights advocates in the first of a series of Capitol Hill briefings to help lawmakers craft an AI policy framework. If founders and funders of AI projects haven’t yet found a seat at the table in Washington, they’ll be left out in the cold or, worse, on the menu.

Delve’s U.S. Federal Risk Assessment highlights who the key policymakers are and what issues are shaping the debate inside the Beltway.

Global Forces Are Also at Play

Beware the Brussels Effect. The rush to regulate AI isn’t only an American phenomenon, but a global one. The European Union has raced ahead with its nearly complete AI Act, which would ban certain uses of AI and mandate that companies producing high-risk AI tools comply with a range of safety requirements. The EU has a history of winning the first-mover award on major policy reforms, leading to what some call the Brussels effect. By setting the most stringent rules on data privacy in 2018 under the General Data Protection Regulation and more recently content moderation under the Digital Services Act, industry players may face increasing pressure to re-orient their entire global offering to comply with Europe’s demands.

Neither London nor Beijing are keen to let Brussels steal the show. China has new rules that include requiring generative AI providers to register with the government and ensure their systems “adhere to core values of socialism” and London is looking to coordinate global policy as well, with plans to “host the first major global summit on AI safety” later this year. The decisions made today by international players and policymakers will ripple across borders and influence the future of AI innovation, meaning firms with international aspirations must pay careful attention and ensure they can build and leverage the right relationships to shape the debate.

Delve’s Transatlantic Risk Package helps you understand the action at home and abroad, diving into the actions in Brussels, London, and other key European capitals.

Traditional Policymakers Aren’t The Only Actors In the AI Regulatory Theater

Policy Discussions Don’t Happen In A Vacuum. Outside the formal processes, a diverse range of stakeholders are shaping public and policymaker perceptions. There are those who want to stop or at least pause AI development, plus activists concerned about issues like algorithmic discrimination, intellectual property, or other issues. Then there are industry leaders and investors who want AI innovation to continue, though nothing suggests the interests of the major industry players, which already have a seat at the policymaking table in many capitals, will align with the interests of everyone else building or using AI tech.

DelveInto.AI Will Keep You Ahead of the Debate. The AI policy landscape is shaping up to be one of the most complicated and complex in recent memory. Just like the technology itself, the debate is moving faster every day, making it impossible to stay ahead without the right tools in place. That’s where DelveInto.ai gives your public affairs operation an advantage.

In addition to Risk Assessments providing in-depth analysis of the policy landscape in key jurisdictions, our team of analysts is tracking policy and stakeholder activity on a daily basis. This tracking will be available to DelveInto.ai subscribers in the coming weeks, and those who purchase one or more risk assessments will receive a free trial to the tracking service.

If You Don’t Shape The AI Debate, It Will Shape Your Interests. It’s quickly becoming an adage that AI won’t replace you, but someone using AI will. Likewise, you may not be focused on the AI policy debate, but those who are focused on the debate will shape it, and how those rules are written will determine AI rules of the road for every industry sector. To ensure you can focus on this fast-moving debate smartly, you will need DelveInto.AI.

Weak Signals

Here’s What You Need To Know
What does Wagner Group’s aborted march on Moscow tell us about public affairs on the Potomac? How did a journal article by a young think tanker portend big trouble for Big Tech? Did crowd sizes tell us a presidential campaign would have an unexpected finish?

In an age in which “surprise has become the standard” for too many, these three questions all provide examples of how capturing weak signals can help public affairs professionals anticipate what’s coming. So what are weak signals, how can you capture them, and what does it take to connect the right dots?

Here’s what you need to know to ensure your public affairs operation has the insights it needs to shape the future.

Weak Signals Are Whispers Of The Potential Future – Ignore Them At Your Own Risk

The March On Moscow Was Months In The Making: Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group burst into the news in late June with what the media described as a “seemingly spontaneous” and “shocking episode” as it took over a key military center and began a drive towards Moscow. Yet, for those who were closely observing, Prigozhin’s moves were anything but a surprise. Indeed, Prigozhin’s dissatisfaction with the Kremlin, Putin, and Russian military leaders had been escalating for months, with the private militia leader posting frequent public statements condemning the lack of support for his mercenary fighters and all but advertising what he was planning to do.

The Young Think Tanker Big Tech Wishes It Sidelined: Weak signals aren’t just a feature of geopolitics, though. They play out across domestic policy and politics every day. Take for instance, a well-regarded January 2017 Yale Law Journal article by a 27 year-old think tank staffer arguing Amazon’s dominance as a platform for commerce warranted more antitrust scrutiny. That staffer’s arguments helped bring to national attention a renewed antitrust movement pushing for new antitrust enforcement approaches to take on Big Tech platforms. A year later, in another journal article, the same would-be-trustbuster highlighted how her movement “is already shaping how politicians, journalists, and the public see and discuss the concentration of market power and the decline of competition.” Their ideas extended into the halls of Congress and onto the 2020 presidential campaign trail. Today, that formerly young law student, Lina Khan, is aggressively pursuing Amazon and other Big Tech platforms as chair of the Federal Trade Commission. Those weak signals indicated coming policy pressure and who would shape it if not stopped.

With Weak Signals, Knowledge Is Power: This progression from rumblings among academics or activists into a drive for political action and eventually policy results is what weak signals are all about. As we warned in 2017, “A growing chorus of academics and think tanks have begun questioning whether tech companies like Amazon, in particular, but also Apple, Microsoft, and others, have become too big, while new advocacy groups have launched to focus on this issue.” If you saw the weak signals strengthening then, you knew the debate was shifting on competition policy. The question is when and whether to squelch (or boost, depending on your objectives) the weak signals you see.

How To Sense And Assess Weak Signals So You Can Avoid Surprises

Hemingway’s Law of Disruption Is Public Affairs’ New MO: As Ernest Hemingway once wrote about going bankrupt, weak signals develop “Gradually and then suddenly.” That is exactly how disruption – be it in technology or policy – tends to happen. The weak signals are always there if you care to look. What matters is developing a rigorous and systemic approach to capture, analyze, and connect weak signals before they reach that inflection point. Public affairs and government relations teams must incorporate a robust monitoring and analysis capability into how they operate. The days of copy and pasted news clips emailed out to giant distribution lists without any context are gone. To succeed in today’s public affairs environment, you need to be able to see the gradual build up to avoid the sudden disruption.

Separate the Weak Signals From The Noise: Today’s public affairs professionals are swimming in information that can overwhelm the time and attention needed to analyze it. At the same time, the news media too often focuses on (if not furthers) the polarizing noise of our politics rather than the actual substance of our policy. Companies need to invest in their own version of noise-cancelling headphones in order to hear what the weak signals are saying. Too often, free (and paid) media monitoring tools lack the capability to truly analyze the information compiled – even if they offer charts and infographics that dazzle. That makes them just another firehouse, rather than a meaningful filter. While today it is easier than ever before to collect information, discerning the trends and anticipating where the discussion may lead is even harder.

Weak Signals Are the Breadcrumbs – Use Them To Understand Potential Policy Direction Others Miss: The weak signals roadmap is littered with clues to where the policy journey may lead, even if it doesn’t match the conventional wisdom. Take the 2016 presidential race for example. Polling and traditional assumptions missed a rising tide of support for Donald Trump for non-traditional voters. Those on the ground in places like Michigan could see it, but Hilary Clinton’s team and campaign experts ignored it. Yet, anyone tuning into on-the-ground programming like Showtime’s “The Circus” or watching local news coverage saw Donald Trump amassing mile-long lines of crowds for his rallies – something rarely if ever a feature of GOP presidential campaigns – and knew something different was happening. The signal was there for those who discerned what data mattered. We know the shock it produced when not enough people did.

The Right Insights Let You Pivot Away From A Coming Wagner, Khan, Or Clinton Moment

Public Affairs Professionals Need To Understand The Value Weak Signals Provide.  Too often, public affairs and government relations professionals lean too heavily on their experience or expertise rather than neutrally assess what the data is actually showing. Approaching weak signals with a “beginner’s mindset” is critical to seeing when a shift is coming. You need to be willing to follow the breadcrumbs, even if it at first it may seem unclear or go against conventional wisdom.

A Robust Monitoring Program Puts You Ahead Of The Curve. Everything a business does in today’s polarized, politicized, and digitized environment is under scrutiny. Companies must employ that same level of scrutiny to find the weak signals in order to protect their brand and its interests and anticipate from where pressure could come next. Investing in a robust monitoring program that goes beyond keywords and digs into the details provides public affairs professionals with actionable insights built for today’s shifting landscape. When you can see the weak signals, you can make the pivots necessary to avoid your own Wagner, Khan, or Clinton moment. Here at Delve, our monitoring capabilities are built to help you do exactly that.