Archive for category: Energy & Utilities

Regional Industry Coalition Discovers It Is Funding Its Own Opposition

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Challenge

Several foundations were presenting themselves to a regional industry coalition’s corporate members as friendly partners on corporate sustainability initiatives. The coalition leadership suspected there was more to the foundations than met the eye. We were commissioned to investigate the activities of these foundations, which groups they were funding, and how the various foundations and other groups were connected and related.

Solution

We dug in deep to discover which groups were getting funded by the foundations and what initiatives were their true focus. We then mapped the network of activist groups connected to these foundations and presented a comprehensive report of these relationships and groups to the coalition leadership.

Although these foundations claimed to be working in good faith with coalition member companies, they were in fact funding much of the opposition to the industry group’s business goals with regulatory and legislative agencies. Our network map clearly showed how their member corporations were unknowingly funding their own opposition.

Results

With a full picture of the network of partnership and funding taking place, we provided the information needed for industry coalition’s leadership to shift their member’s funding efforts to foundations and causes that supported their interests.

 

The Changing Nature of Energy Activism Means Pipelines Can’t Wait for Crisis To Hit

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The Changing Nature of Energy Activism Means Pipelines Can’t Wait for Crisis To Hit

The Overview: Newsbase’s North American Oil & Gas reports, “Last week marked the first anniversary of the closure of the camps in North Dakota that at one point had held thousands of protesters against the Dakota Access pipeline project. Still, the influence of that event looms large, and stands to shape how future demonstrations against energy projects might be carried out.”

Why It Matters: In speaking with Newsbase for the article, Delve Founder & CEO Jeff Berkowitz discussed the changing nature of opposition to energy infrastructure projects, viewing the Dakota Access pipeline protests beginning in Fall 2016 “as a demarcation into a new age of activism.” Indeed, this new age was a prominent feature at this year’s CERAWeek conference, where pipeline CEOs vowed to fight back against today’s more intense, coordinated, and sophisticated environmental activism.

As Newsbase’s Sam Wright warned, “[P]revention is certainly easier than finding a cure. But for those oper­ators that are further down the line, along with their backers, highly visible demonstra­tions are here to stay, especially in the current political climate.”

How We Got Here:

  • “Prior to [DAPL], protests against infrastructure and drilling activity had largely involved com­munities raising concerns over issues such as land value and local environmental impact … This changed with the Keystone XL project” when activist pressure “entered the political sphere, and the project was rejected by former US President Barack Obama in 2015.”
  • “Buoyed by this success and seeking new causes, the movement shifted its focus to the US$3.78 billion Dakota Access project … ‘All of a sudden, you had 10,000 activists, in camps, 90% of which weren’t from North Dakota, and didn’t have a stake in the local issues but were using it to make a broader point,’ Delve’s founder and CEO, Jeff Berkowitz.”

What Comes Next:

  • “[E]ven though protesters failed to stop Dakota Access from being completed, the momentum behind opposition to new projects remains strong. A “Week of Action” is currently under way at the site of Energy Transfer’s Bayou Bridge pipeline in Louisiana. … Meanwhile, Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline replacement project in northern Minnesota … has already seen several arrests” of “protesters that oppose the project chaining themselves to equip­ment and blocking streets. Similar tactics have also been used at the Atlantic Sunrise gas pipeline in Pennsylvania … And the Trans Mountain expan­sion project in Canada has seen numerous demonstrations …”

Was DAPL An Exception? Maybe Not:

  • “In the US, the ongoing wave of protests is per­haps also being spurred by the change in gov­ernment. Under Obama, the federal government was relatively sympathetic to environmental issues and activists … With Trump’s ambitions to build infrastruc­ture and promote ‘energy dominance’ – as well as his more combative nature – some of the tradi­tional avenues for opponents to have their voices heard on energy projects have been shut down.”
  • “Unsurprisingly, many protesters think that this gives them little option other than to take to the streets. This was acknowledged recently by Lancas­ter Against Pipelines’ co-founder, Mark Clatter­buck, whose group opposes the Atlantic Sunrise development,” who claimed they “had ‘tried every means available to us, and what we’ve come to realise is that the local communities actually don’t have the ability to legally stop a project like this’.”
  • “[T]his has prompted a willingness to try new methods. Many groups now routinely publish lists of financial institutions that back the energy projects they oppose. For example, the website of the No Bayou Bridge Solidarity Campaign has listed Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citibank and Wells Fargo offices on its ‘targets map’ …”

What Can Firms Do To Protect Themselves?

  • “In turn, said Berkowitz, this means that operators are coming under greater pressure to have firm plans in place to deal with activism from the very beginning. ‘Firms are going to have to add this element of due diligence, and if they don’t want to, the banks and the project financiers are going to force them to … We are hearing this a lot from the project finance side, where people are saying that political and reputational risk has to be a key part of the due diligence process.’”
  • This due diligence process, Berkowitz explained, “means understanding who is likely to get engaged, who are the local officials, the landowners and so on … If you do your community outreach … the less sympathetic these stakeholders are to activists because they already know you… You have to do it right, though. It can’t just be a town hall meeting where you show up and answer some questions. It has to be real and meaningful engagement with the community.”

Enviro’s New Playbook, No Show Boat, and #Lobbyists #Resist

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Here’s What You Need To Know

As we wrap up 2017, it is time to reflect on the year that was. Over the past year, it has become clear that 2017 became the year of #Resistance as we enter a new Age of Activism that is rocking not just Washington, but many industries, including the energy industry.

As Delve CEO Jeff Berkowitz noted in a Morning Consult column earlier this week, environmental groups are no longer letting the staid bureaucratic process of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) play out slowly. The Sierra Club’s efforts last month to halt construction of the Nexus pipeline by suing FERC before it completed its normal approval process presents a major shift in the way environmental groups engage in the energy infrastructure space. This is just one example of the new, more aggressive playbook being used by energy activists in the Trump era:

  • Turning Up The Heat On FERC: Lacking an administration sympathetic to their cause like the previous one, environmental groups have chosen to do an end-run around the agency that regulates pipeline and other energy infrastructure projects. In filing the lawsuit to stop the project before the Commission’s rehearing process is completed, Sierra Club is showing that no regulatory process that has been an accepted sequence for years is safe from activists. The result is a government oversight process that becomes even more politicized as both sides become increasingly confrontational.
  • Increasing The Risk Of Confrontation: Environmental groups and their supporters are more impatient for victories and more aggressive in their tactics, posing political, financial, and reputational risks for energy companies and project financiers. The push for quicker legal action or street protests also pressures pipeline companies to get shovels in the ground on their projects sooner, increasing the likelihood for real confrontations like those witnessed during the Dakota Access Pipeline protests. There is a reason why PBS NewsHour named the anti-DAPL protests the biggest story of 2016 after the presidential election: What we saw at Dakota Access is a harbinger of what is to come.
  • Welcome To The Age Of Activism: This is part of the broader trend highlighted in Delve’s white paper on the new Age of Activism. The speed, scale, and professionalization of today’s activist movements present challenges for unsuspecting and unprepared companies – meaning it is more important than ever to have a competitive information advantage to anticipate and protect against these risks.

Read the entire op-ed here.

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NO SHOW BOAT

Why did Viking River Cruises terminate its plan to offer vacations along the Mississippi River? The European-based company decided that the economics of operating in the U.S. no longer made sense due to an obscure federal law signed by then-President Grover Cleveland in 1886, the Passenger Vessel Services Act (PVSA). This law, which requires that ships carrying passengers between U.S. ports be American-built and owned and operated by Americans, was conceived as a protectionist measure to shelter domestic shipbuilding.

More than 130 years later, however, the new tourism jobs and dollars promised by this venture and greeted with excitement by towns and cities along the Mississippi River, are being denied by the PVSA. The result is an interesting irony: today’s “America First” President may well do better to eliminate an “America First” law enacted by a prior one if he wants to create jobs and spur economic growth here at home.

FACTS INSTEAD OF FAKES

Forged documents alleging sexual misconduct and phony policy stances by lawmakers have ushered in a new climate of uncertainty as public allegations, buttressed by fake documents, are used as a political weapon. The name and signature of a former staffer for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) was forged to allege sexual misconduct by the Senator, and a Republican candidate running against Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) tweeted a fake document that alleged the Congresswoman wanted to resettle “up to 41k” refugees in her California Congressional District. Here at Delve, we know that effective opposition research creates the foundation for any successful, fact-based public messaging campaign, and in our experience, political hits that work start with the facts instead of the fakes.

“UNAFFORDABLE” OR “UNCOMPETITIVE”?

Thirty-seven percent of uninsured Americans say the reason they are without health insurance is because they can’t afford it, yet one economist asserts that “unaffordable” health insurance is a myth – or at least is caused by government intervention that blocks the free market. Citing technological advances in affordable, mass-produced luxuries like personal computers, cell phones, and cars, John Tamny makes the case that “market-driven, entrepreneurial endeavor has a brilliant track record of turning scarcity into abundance.”

Given that functioning markets have allowed Americans at all income levels to afford more items than ever before, Tamny advises the same to drive down costs when it comes to health insurance policy: “Instead of replacing Obamacare with [Republicans’] own central plan, think about simply doing nothing other than ensuring there are no national governmental barriers limiting entrepreneurial entrance into the health insurance space.”

#LOBBYISTS #RESIST

When the final tax reform package was taking shape on Capitol Hill, the influence industry was using a variety of tactics to ensure their client’s interests and concerns were addressed in the final conference package. In a nod to the public nature of today’s policy debates, a lobbyist for the travel industry sought to kill an amendment supported by Delta Air Lines by sending emails to Republican tax writers with links the lobbyist claimed showed the airline’s consultants criticizing Trump, entitling one email, “Delta Lobbyists: RESIST.”

The implication was that Republicans shouldn’t reward the interests of those #resisting the President, but the people who were supposedly the airline’s consultants were actually those of an airline interest group. Now that traditional shoe-leather lobbying – and the smoke-filled rooms of the past – are no longer enough to achieve one’s public affairs objectives, companies need to make sure they have their research done right before deploying it against their opponents on Capitol Hill.

DYING TO STOP REGULATIONS

A recent Wall Street Journal investigation uncovered something the research bullpen at Delve has known for some time: millions of comments submitted to executive agencies on pending regulatory issues are fake, or even dead. Although it’s a felony to “knowingly make false, fictitious or fraudulent statements to a U.S. agency,” it’s not considered fraud if mass emailing comments have the authorization of the individuals named.

This law has not stopped campaigns and activists who promote or oppose a regulation from using the name and address of individuals without their knowing, or even submitting comments from the deceased. Officials on both sides of the political spectrum are planning to look into this practice to find ways to improve the integrity of the public comment process, however in the meantime, it is more important than ever to have a deeper understanding of what, who, and why is behind the oppositional forces on an issue.

Fireside Chat

Delve Founder & CEO Speaks At S&P Global Platts Pipeline Development & Expansion Conference

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Delve Founder & CEO Speaks At S&P Global Platts Pipeline Development & Expansion Conference

The Stage: On Wednesday, Delve Founder & CEO Jeff Berkowitz spoke at the 12th Annual S&P Global Platts Pipeline Development & Expansion Conference in Houston, Texas. Joined onstage by Delve strategic partner & Off The Record Strategies CEO Mark Pfeifle, the two held a Fireside Chat to discuss preparing energy infrastructure companies for the new Age of Activism, using lessons learned from Delve’s and OTR’s teams on the ground during the Dakota Access Pipeline protests.

The Lessons: Being unprepared has consequences. Therefore:

  • Know who your opposition is: the key leaders and stakeholders; their motivations; understand their funding sources, tactics, and alliances.
  • Engage early and often, before you are in a fight: “You can win, but at what cost?”
  • Don’t expect the benefit of the doubt in a crisis. Get ahead of the curve with the facts and your own resources.

The Takeaway: We discovered that local law enforcement was facing well-organized, well-funded, and savvy professional energy infrastructure protesters. Although they left North Dakota, these professional protesters now have a roadmap of best practices to use on other energy infrastructure projects. And we’re already seeing them take action across the country.

All signs point to Dakota Access – the biggest story of 2016 after the presidential election – being a harbinger of what’s to come.

What’s on TAP for Healthcare and Tax Reform?

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Here’s What You Need to Know

As Donald Trump is sworn into office tomorrow, eyes turn to what key industries can expect in his Administration. As part of The Administration Project (TAP), Delve has been analyzing and assessing the incoming administration’s personnel choices and policy cues to determine just that.

This week, we released the next two summaries of our insights:

  • Healthcare Issues Under The Radar: While most of the press and onlookers tracking healthcare policy under the Trump administration are focused on efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare, there are a number of other incredibly important policy fights flying under the media radar. These debates include drug pricing, Medicare reform, and major insurance company and hospital mergers.
  • Tax Reform Table Is Set, So Who Will Get To Eat? More so than at any point since the Tax Reform Act of 1986, the stars have aligned to make the collective dream of comprehensive tax reform a reality. With Republican control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, along with a cast of tax experts and dealmakers including Paul Ryan, Kevin Brady, Steve Mnuchin, Wilbur Ross, Chuck Schumer, and of course Donald Trump, the players needed to help make tax reform a reality are in place. How exactly the process takes shape will depend on a number of political variables, but the stage is certainly set for major policy action.

For a more comprehensive look at how the new Administration will impact these industries, check out our blog posts “What’s On TAP for Healthcare” and “What’s On TAP for Tax Reform.” Also, don’t forget to subscribe to TAP for weekly updates on the new Administration and access to custom research on-demand.

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NOT-SO-INDEPENDENT BOARD MEMBERS
Recently, the Delaware State Supreme Court issued a ruling that could imperil companies with too cozy a relationship with their supposedly independent directors. The decision found that members of the board of the online gaming company Zynga had too close a relationship with Zynga’s corporate officers (one board member even co-owned a private jet with an executive). This type of connection had not been seen as undermining independence in the past, but the Court agreed with shareholders who accused the board of breaching their fiduciary duty by allowing the company founder and controlling shareholder to trade on inside information. The long-term impact of the ruling is likely to be stricter scrutiny on boards and companies regarding the actual independence of board members. Look for concerned or activist shareholders to cast a wider net when examining such relationships in the future.

MNUCHIN MISDIRECTION OR SCHUMER SHAME?
Today the highly-anticipated confirmation hearing of President-elect Trump’s nominee to lead the Treasury Department, Steven Mnuchin, will begin and Democrats will almost certainly seek to use Mnuchin’s alleged role in the 2008 collapse of California’s IndyMac bank against him. Critics have used the collapse to tie Mnuchin to the 2008 housing crisis and home foreclosures, but a recent review of the details surrounding IndyMac’s failure reveals a different culprit – Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. The bank’s failure stemmed from a $100 million-a-day run on the bank that was prompted by a June 26, 2008 letter released by Schumer in which he told federal regulators he was “concerned that IndyMac’s financial deterioration poses significant risks to both taxpayers and borrower.” Schumer’s letter was seen as so irresponsible that the Office of Thrift Supervision specifically blamed Schumer for IndyMac’s collapse and a Democratic Comptroller of Currency called Schumer’s actions “incredibly stupid.” This example serves as an important reminder of how unreliable claims made during a confirmation hearing really can be.

THE INTERNET OF THINGS SPEAKS
If smart homes are going to become actually smart, the various “Internet of Things” devices trickling into houses will need to talk to each other. Yet, despite the growing number of home gadgets like Apple’s HomeKit, Samsung’s SmartThings, Amazon’s Alexa, Google Home, and more, a universal language between the “Internet of Things” does not exist – but it is in the works. Major tech companies including Intel, Microsoft, Qualcomm, Samsung, LG, and Sony are all quietly working toward this common language through an industry body called the Open Connectivity Foundation (OCF). The group is looking to provide the standard language for all “Internet of Things” devices to be able to communicate regardless of brand. But, with Apple and Google not participating, there is still a question of whether or not OCF can succeed. Setting up a standards body may also help these companies navigate the eventual policy and legal questions these devices raise.

IS GOVERNMENT ETHICS RIGGED?
Political commentator and longtime CPA Bruce Bialosky worries “that the entire ethics process is rigged against people who have succeeded outside government.” As he notes, “It is easy to put your net worth in a blind trust when all you have is your house, a few investments, and your multiple government pensions. But, it is a lot different when you have a boatload of money earned from a highly-successful career spanning 40 years.” The ethics bureaucracy, however, does not appreciate or care about that distinction. Their insistence that such successful businessmen who have not relied on the revolving door of Washington to build their wealth, divest entirely from it “would cause future potential citizens from ever taking important government positions.” Bialosky is certainly not “naïve as to the fact that a wealthy person may wish to become more wealthy. … But they have been asked to work for us at great sacrifice. They have multiple talents that career politicos do not. They also bring a fresh perspective. Most everyone wants to shake things up a little in Washington. … The only way to address this is bringing in fresh blood. We should not let the ethics industry stop us from having qualified people from outside government come in and do some ‘remodeling.’”

MOBILE BANKING FOR THE UNBANKED
Monese is a mobile banking app in the U.K. geared toward helping recent immigrants establish a firm financial footing in their new home. It is part of a trend of new tech companies looking to disrupt traditional banking systems while capitalizing on the underserved demographic of the less affluent, especially migrants who are bumping up against issues with confirming their identities. Having a bank account, and thus being able to have a debit or credit card, is crucial for modern existence, especially as some places around the world begin to move toward a trend of cash-free societies. Apps like Monese could provide the solution for the poorer communities that suffer in a cash-free system.

ARE WHITE COLLAR WORKERS DOOMED?
A recent study by McKinsey & Company has suggested that advancements in robotics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning could lead to a new age of automation that may endanger many white collar workers the way previous advancements have harmed manufacturing workers. The report’s key takeaway was an estimate that about half of all the activities people are paid to do in the world’s workforce, or $16 trillion in wages, could potentially be automated by adapting currently demonstrated technologies. What this figure may not be taking into account, however, is the fact that at some point, companies automating their workforce would result in a greatly diminished number of consumers who can pay for their goods and services. Going back to Henry Ford paying his factory workers enough to afford the Model T’s they were building, savvy employers have often ought to ensure their workers could afford their products, and that mentality could limit the accuracy of these predictions. Between that calculation and the churn of innovation creating new opportunities for new kinds of work, McKinsey’s Malthusian prediction seems unlikely to become a reality.

Mark Your Calendar

Friday, January 20 – Inauguration Day
Tuesday, January 31 – Year-End Federal Campaign Finance Reports Due

What’s on TAP for Energy and Financial Services?

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Here’s What You Need to Know

As we approach Inauguration Day, eyes turn to what key industries can expect as Donald Trump takes office. As part of Delve’s The Administration Project (TAP), we have been analyzing and assessing the incoming administration’s personnel choices and policy cues to determine just that.

This week, we released two of four summaries of our insights:

  • Energy Surprises: During the campaign, the President-elect was bullish in his advocacy for expansion of domestic energy production through deregulation and a focus on oil, natural gas, and coal. Thus far, his Cabinet picks have tracked well with that goal. But, outside political and market forces, like state regulators crucial to oil and natural gas pipeline expansion, along with the energy market’s preference for natural gas over coal, may create roadblocks to achieving everything the new Administration has in mind. Likewise, renewable energy sources may not be as DOA in the new administration as some observers think, given incoming Energy Secretary Rick Perry’s record in Texas.
  • Financial Services Fights: Between the President-elect’s campaign rhetoric and the number of Wall Street veterans in his Cabinet, it’s difficult to pin down where the new Administration is likely to fall on issues important to the financial services industry. It also remains unclear how much of a priority items like regulating the growing fintech industry, addressing the regulations in Dodd-Frank, and the Labor Department’s “fiduciary rule,” are to the new Administration. The only thing that is clear on these issues? The battle lines are being drawn with conflicts likely to play out over the next four years, both within the industry, and the administration.

 For a more comprehensive look at how the new Administration will impact these industries, check out our blog posts “What’s On TAP for Energy” and “What’s On TAP for Financial Services.” Also, don’t forget to subscribe to TAP for weekly updates on the new Administration and access to custom research on-demand.

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MISSING FROM OBAMA’S FAREWELL
President Obama’s farewell address was half victory lap for his claimed accomplishments and half call to action for his supporters. Business columnist Caroline Baum recently predicted which key elements of the Obama legacy wouldn’t make the cut for Tuesdaynight’s speech. For the most part she was spot on, correctly predicting the President would fail to omit the fact that the economic expansion beginning in 2009 has been the weakest since World War II, the President’s failure to transfer his personal popularity to the rest of his party, the disengaged strategy the U.S. has taken in foreign policy over the past eight years, and his administration’s active avoidance of addressing radical Islamic terrorism. While President Obama did bring up the topic of race relations, claiming they have improved during his tenure in office, most Americans disagree with that assessment. These facts show the difficulty facing Obama in framing his legacy when many Americans rejected his policies and chosen successor at the polls just a few months ago.

INTERNATIONAL RACES TO WATCH IN ‘17
Foreign policy expert Kevin Lees recently outlined several key elections around the world to watch for indications of any continuing patterns of changing global political dynamics. Referendums on current regimes will (or are likely to occur) in India with provincial legislative assembly elections, Mexico’s state gubernatorial election, and Venezuela’s regional and municipal elections along with a possible presidential recall vote. Several parliamentary and presidential elections throughout Western Europe –  including those in France, The Netherlands, Germany, and Italy – will be major tests of whether the EU continues to see populist nationalism grow as it did in 2016. The makeup of the new Politburo in China, while not technically an election, will offer insights into how the country plans to navigate a Trump-led Unites States. How these elections unfold could have a significant impact on how the incoming Trump administration approaches bilateral and multilateral issues around the globe.

EURO-REGULATORS’ NEXT TARGET: DATA
Regulators, especially those in Europe, are looking at the data capabilities of big tech firms like Google and Facebook as a possible target for future regulations. Policymakers and academics have suggested the advantages these companies’ data resources give them could represent a barrier to entry for other companies and stifle possible innovation and competition. Opponents of the growing EU regulatory regime have pointed out how potential new rules could punish companies as they seek to use data to improve service for users, serving as a major hindrance to the burgeoning field of artificial intelligence technology that requires large sets of data to be effective. This policy area may well be the next major antitrust policy fight between global tech firms and the EU, which has already targeted companies like Apple, Amazon, and Google for various allegedly anti-competitive practices. 

AMBULANCE EMERGENCY
Dr. Geoffrey Hosta, a 30-year veteran emergency room doctor, recently published a piece sounding the alarm on the serious, growing issue of “ambulance waste.” Patients are using ambulances who do not medically need them, resulting in regular instances of such vehicles not being available for serious, life-threatening injuries they are meant to respond to. Hosta enumerated instances of ambulance waste ranging from stubbed toes, to minor ankle sprains, to an alcoholic who requested an ambulance every day because the hospital was near his favorite liquor store. Cities are considering a range of policies to solve this problem, including projects to allow doctors to use tablets to video chat with patients, processes where 911 dispatchers can determine the necessity of an ambulance, and apps that could allow paramedics to video chat with patients who request their services. As the devil would be in the details to any such policies, look for tech innovators to introduce solutions to ambulance waste that may have larger value throughout the healthcare market.

HOW TRUMP’S TRADE BATTLE IS, AND ISN’T, LIKE REAGAN’S
In a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, Holman Jenkins Jr. traces President-elect Trump’s current war against Detroit automakers who seek to move auto manufacturing overseas back to the Reagan trade policies of the 1980’s (spearheaded by people like Robert Lighthizer, who was recently nominated to be U.S. Trade Representative). Trump, much like Reagan, secured the election thanks largely to the support of blue-collar American workers, like those in the auto industry. Both men made promises to protect these workers’ jobs. But whereas Reagan waged his trade war against Japanese automakers, Trump must wage his against many U.S. auto manufacturers themselves. Jenkins points out that Trump’s criticism has focused exclusively on the exportation of jobs related to the manufacturing of less profitable small-car assembly, and stayed away from the more profitable business of exporting American-built SUVs to foreigners. Between that and reportedly strong signals that compliance by automakers will be rewarded with a relaxation of the Obama administration’s fuel mileage standards, Detroit could see brighter days ahead even as it is buffeted by the tumultuous winds of Trump tweets.

Mark Your Calendar

Friday, January 20 – Inauguration Day
Tuesday, January 31 – Year-End Federal Campaign Finance Reports Due

What’s on TAP for Energy in a Trump Administration?

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During his campaign, President-elect Donald Trump was consistently vociferous in advocating for expanding domestic energy production by removing regulations, while calling for more private investment in oil, coal, and natural gas. And so far, most of Trump’s cabinet nominees align themselves with this mantra. But, market and political forces outside of anyone’s control could be the primary drivers behind changes in the energy sector. And, one may find a few surprises among the incoming administration’s personnel that run against conventional wisdom.

Here are four things to watch as the Trump administration begins to turn personnel into policy:

Trump’s Pro-Gas Policy Will Undermine His Pro-Coal Policy: With 50,000 coal-related jobs lost since 2008, Trump has pledged to revitalize the coal industry by removing environmental regulations implemented by the Obama administration. Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt, currently suing the EPA over carbon emission regulations, is slated to be the new EPA Administrator. And, Interior Secretary nominee Ryan Zinke is expected to allow new coal leases on federal lands in an effort to revitalize the industry. But, Zinke could also put up roadblocks as he has been a fierce advocate for public lands, opposing GOP orthodoxy on transferring federal property to states. The overwhelming factor that may drive the outlook of the coal industry is how much more it suffers from competition from natural gas with the rise of fracking, another key element of the incoming administration’s path to expand domestic energy production. The market’s preference for gas over coal could mean the incoming administration’s pro-gas policies will likely undermine their pro-coal policies.

For Renewables, The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same: Conventional wisdom claims the President-elect’s policies will severely hurt renewable fuel industries. Yet, former Texas Governor Rick Perry, Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Energy, has been a strong promoter of renewable energy, overseeing massive investments into wind power in Texas by maintaining limited regulations. Perry also supported federal subsidies for wind producers, a position in stark contrast to the President-elect’s general opposition to tax breaks and ‘crony capitalism’ for renewable energy. Yet, the President-elect has voiced support for the Renewable Fuel Standard during the campaign. This sets up a potential fight involving large portions in the fossil fuel industry who oppose the RFS in its current form and have several allies within the new administration.

Pipelines Can Count On FERC Under Trump …: Pipeline construction and energy infrastructure investments are where we’re most likely to see a complete 180-degree flip in policy from Obama to Trump. The President-elect has made several statements indicating interest in approving existing pipelines – such as the Dakota Access Pipeline – and reopening negotiations on constructing the Keystone XL pipeline. Who the President-elect names to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) – the quasi-judicial body that is often the first federal-level stop for public hearings for pipeline projects – as well as the officials within the Interior and Army Departments (especially the Corps of Engineers) will be critical. By rule, FERC has three commissioners from the President’s party and two from the opposing party. The five-member commission currently has two vacancies, with all three remaining panel members being Democrats, one whose term ends on June 30 of this year. By this summer, Trump can deliver Republican control and a Republican chairman to FERC. At Delve, we’ve been following potential nominees to FERC as part of The Administration Project, a service we launched after the election to help companies and causes understand the policy implications of the incoming administration. While no names have officially been announced, candidates being floated to lead the bipartisan commission are either experienced energy executives (such as Janet Sena) or oil company lobbyists (such as Shannon Banaga), all likely to produce candidates who will support the President-elect’s call for advancing energy infrastructure projects.

… But They Can’t Count On State And Local Governments: Green groups that have protested pipeline projects in the past don’t necessarily have to engage the federal government to achieve their goals of stopping or delaying construction. Projects being pursued across the country – including the Atlantic Coast and Mountain Valley pipelines in Virginia, Enbridge’s Line 5 pipeline expansion in Michigan, the Valley Lateral Pipeline project in New York, and the Sabal Trail Pipeline project in Florida, Georgia, and Alabama – could be subject to objection from local and state government agencies that are friendlier to the environmental left. Just because energy infrastructure companies now have a friend in the White House doesn’t mean all roadblocks to pipeline construction will be cleared; environmental opposition will only be louder and they will put the “think global, act local” mantra into action.

Yucca Could Trip Up Trump’s Other Nuclear Agenda: Much of the Department of Energy’s functions are focused on maintaining and regulating nuclear power across the country. President-elect Trump has made several comments referring to his intention to strengthen and upgrade America’s nuclear power capabilities, a task which would fall to DOE to execute. However, the President-elect also has also applied the caveat that nuclear power not be supported through carve-outs in the tax code, presenting a challenge to operators of nuclear power plants who claim they rely on subsidies to maintain their functionality. But, current public opinion of nuclear power and the issue of how to address nuclear waste has not been conducive to, and will continue to be a roadblock in creating a safe space for the industry. The Obama administration’s unwillingness to proceed with waste storage facilities such as Yucca Mountain was unsurprising. But, Perry has also voiced opposition to the proposed Nevada nuclear waste repository during the 2012 Republican presidential primary, a position that may further stall any efforts.

Personnel will undoubtedly drive debate, details, and decision-making on policy within the Trump administration when it comes to different fuel sources. It’s how that policy interacts with or reacts to market forces and political dynamics that will shape the future of energy production, transportation, and generation. The Administration Project at Delve can help you understand the who, what, and when of the incoming administration and provide those important insights at the intersection of business and policymaking, whether it’s a cause you’re supporting or a bottom line you’re protecting. To learn more, click here.

Jeff Berkowitz is the Founder and CEO of Delve, a Washington-based competitive intelligence and issue management firm helping companies and causes achieve and leverage an information advantage in overcoming their policy, political, and business challenges. He formerly oversaw research and messaging operations for The White House, U.S. Department of State, Republican National Committee, and the George W. Bush and Rudy Giuliani presidential campaigns.

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