Elon's Musk's Reputation Gap

Elon Musk’s Reputation Gap, Mission (Not) Impossible, and Brexit: Chase Your Swiss Bliss

Here’s What You Need To Know

Elon Musk has had a tough go at it lately. With safety concerns and delays on the Tesla production line, a disappearing classified government satellite launched from a SpaceX rocket, and a descent into Twitter wars with critics, Musk is discovering what happens when the shine comes off in the public arena. His recent experience is illustrative of the importance of reputation in today’s fluid operating environment and of the political risk faced by companies, organizations, and individuals when there is a gap between public perception and reality. This reputation gap foreshadows public affairs challenges, and so keeping these three key points in mind will help you understand and mitigate such challenges before they occur:

  1. Fundamentals Matter: Facts are the foundation of any compelling narrative and successful public affairs effort. Because of this, no amount of “spin” can negate a problematic business model or lack of results. In Musk’s case, he has been lauded as a “visionary of the future,” but from SpaceX to SolarCity to Tesla to Hyperloop, his business models have relied on receiving significant government investment – often secured by prodigious lobbying and campaign expenditures. The financial market, and the public, have largely ignored this reality until now through a combination of Kool-Aid and dubious corporate governance to mask failing businesses, but it was only a matter of time until this bubble burst.
  2. How You Respond Is An Indication Of The Truth: When the bubble burst, Musk’s response only made it worse. Recent criticism, which included articles questioning whether this is his “Kayne West moment,” appear to have touched a nerve with the billionaire, who has taken to Twitter to criticize journalists. It goes without saying that if you need to explain you are not anti-Semitic, you are losing in the public arena. An aggressive, personal response demonstrates that the debate has centered on a pressure point, because if he could counter the negative coverage with facts, he would not have to lash out at the media. Unsurprisingly, Musk’s behavior has only fanned the flames of the viral narrative challenging him, suggesting that every aspect of his empire may soon come under even greater scrutiny in the weeks and months ahead.
  3. The Greater The Reputation Gap, The Greater The Political Risk: Musk has floated above the reality of his businesses for some time. The past few weeks have shown that he has not appreciated the political risk he faced due to that reputation gap, and his response in the public arena indicates that he did not adequately prepare to anticipate and mitigate those risks. When such a fall from grace occurs, the reputational damage can lead to hard financial costs and even influence investors’ behavior, which is why managing political risk and protecting one’s reputation is more important than ever.

Unlike the Tesla vehicle he launched into space earlier this year (environmental impact be damned), Elon Musk’s reputation is hurtling back towards earth as he finds himself on the losing end of a public affairs challenge largely of his own making. To avoid a similar fate for you and your interests in the public arena, follow the above framework to manage your reputation gap – before you’re in a fight.

News You Can Use

MISSION (NOT) IMPOSSIBLE?

The political world has been fixated by the on-again, off-again summit scheduled to take place between President Trump and Kim Jong Un in Singapore next month, and the media coverage focused on the evolving drama has provided a teachable moment in consuming and analyzing news that we would be remiss to ignore. Last week, a New York Times story claimed “a senior White House official told reporters that even if the meeting were reinstated, holding it on June 12 would be impossible,” which the President took to Twitter to criticize as “wrong” as he insists that date is still a possibility.

The media swung into full action, defending the Times’ reporting, with one fellow reporter leaking that actual recording from the briefing alluded to in the Times story. Yet the recording shows the official never used the word “impossible,” or said June 12th could not work, just that it would be challenging given the short time frame. The word “impossible” was chosen by reporters to characterize (and subsequently, editorialize) the official’s remarks, proving what we here at Delve often find to be the case: just because something is reported doesn’t make it the truth.

BREXIT: CHASE YOUR SWISS BLISS

Conventional wisdom holds that Brexit is an impossible situation for the United Kingdom (UK), but Pieter Cleppe of the independent think tank Open Europe holds the contrary view, offering an analysis highlighting how Switzerland’s experience in negotiating with the European Union (EU) can be instructive for the UK. Switzerland is not a member of the EU yet trades heavily with it, and since the Swiss voted against joining the EU’s single market in 1992, they have negotiated arrangements on the economic, political, and security fronts to their benefit – despite the dire warnings of serious economic consequences from its business community at the time.

While noting differences between the two countries, Cleppe cites the UK’s advantages such as its substantial economic clout and geostrategic prominence as reasons why it too can “have its cake and eat it,” suggesting that the Swiss experience may provide Brexit Britain the roadmap it needs to chase its bliss.

GETTING SCHOOLED ON THE FACTS 

In an April edition of TL;DR, we wrote about the trend of public educators organizing across the country to demand an increase in teacher pay, which has only continued since then. From the statistics cited in the public arena, however, one receives an incomplete and misleading picture that obfuscates the true nature of teacher compensation, thereby doing a disservice towards a serious, constructive policy debate. Department of Labor data shows that benefits such as health insurance, paid leave, and pensions comprise an average of 33% of compensation for public school teachers.

These benefits are typically richer than those provided in the private-sector, and private-sector employees work an average of 37% more hours per year than public school teachers. Teacher pensions are also placing a serious burden on state taxpayers that many states have yet to resolve, which is why addressing new demands for higher pay can be financially difficult for states. With the prevailing narrative focused on teacher salary detached from the full context of teacher compensation, this public policy debate has greatly misinformed the public and demonstrates the harm that viral narratives devoid of context can inflict on substantive policy issues if unchallenged. 

BEWARE OF…EXTREME CENTRISTS?

Much is made of the influence of today’s extreme fringes on our politics, but it may be that those “cold and timid souls” in the center are no less dangerous to democracy. Writer and researcher David Adler examined research showing that “across Europe and North America, centrists are the least supportive of democracy, the least committed to its institutions and the most supportive of authoritarianism.” This finding may come as a surprise, but it can be speculated that centrists who are less steeped in ideology desire “strong and efficient government over messy democratic politics,” and are therefore more comfortable with authoritarianism so long as it appears benevolent and gets stuff done.

In light of this data, Winston Churchill’s timeless observation on democracy bears repeating: “Democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried …”

Handicapping Legalized Sports Betting

Handicapping Legalized Sports Betting, Grown in the USA, and Can Prison Reform Pass Go?

Here’s What You Need To Know

With last week’s ruling overturning a 1992 federal law prohibiting states other than Nevada from authorizing betting on professional sports, the Supreme Court cleared the way for states to get in on the action. The Court’s ruling does not explicitly legalize sports betting across the country but allows states to legalize the practice on their own. So, before you go out to place your legal bet on the upcoming game, the dust from stakeholders scrambling to create the new regulatory environment needs to settle. Exactly what that environment looks like, and which stakeholders will benefit most, remains to be seen. Here is our handicapping of who will shape the new regulatory environment:

  • The Leagues: The National Football League, Major League Baseball, National Basketball Association, and National Hockey League were supportive of the 1992 law that made sports betting illegal and were on the losing side of last week’s ruling. This opposition stemmed from concerns that widespread betting could result in the potential for game outcomes being rigged, but that opposition softened a few years ago and the leagues even began outreach to casinos and state lawmakers to determine what a future regulatory environment might look like. With some team owners expecting intensified fan interest to double franchise values across the “big four,” the leagues’ push for so-called integrity fees, a small percentage to “help protect the integrity of their games and exploit data-licensing opportunities,” would reap them billions of dollars if enacted. Yet, this fee could erode the profits of bookmakers and incentivize consumers to instead shun the legal betting market for better odds and bigger payouts elsewhere.
  • State Government: In anticipation of the Court’s ruling, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Delaware, and Mississippi enacted sports gambling legislation so that they were ready to stand up legal betting as soon as possible. Other states across the country have proposals in various stages of the legislative process also, and some like Connecticut are now considering calling a special session of the state legislature to push through sports gambling expansion. Most of the bills at the state-level are focused on basic statutes that will allow bets to be placed in brick-and-mortar establishments soon, rather than implement the regulatory makeup favored by the leagues, but as states are already planning to offer mobile sports betting in the future, a whole new host of new issues raised from that course of action will likely prompt federal legislation to remedy.
  • Congress: Leagues are calling for legislation at the federal-level to implement integrity fees, as well as other policies they favor. Federal action to do this seems unlikely for now, though, because it is simply hard for Congress to find consensus on a course of action – particularly in an election year – and because states are already creating the new landscape by developing their own regulatory frameworks. Then, the challenge becomes the resulting patchwork of differing regulations at the state-level, which is what Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) is hoping to prevent by laying the groundwork for federal legislation that “ensures there are some federal standards” in place, as legal sports betting could easily cross state lines via the internet. And, as it stands, current federal law prohibits “bets and the transfer of gaming information between states,” something that will likely need to be revisited in light of the Court’s ruling.
  • The Banks: Fearing that they would be on the hook in the event that borrowers who gamble on credit did not repay their debts, credit card issuers have traditionally prevented cardholders from using their products for gambling. However, large U.S. issuers like JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, and American Express are revisiting these policies, which would free them up to capture more spending by customers seeking to place bets on individual sporting events. This trend seems likely to come to pass, not only because the estimated $150 billion on sports bets that Americans place is expected to increase, but because gambling processors such as WorldPlay Inc. and payment networks like Visa and Mastercard have already “spent years laying the groundwork to authorize card transactions for gambling.”

Only time will tell if real-time odds will be prominently displayed on scoreboards in stadiums, and whether kiosks allowing fans in attendance to place bets will line the concourses next to concession stands. What is clear is that there is a lot of money on the line as this regulatory landscape is built for various stakeholders, suggesting that the weeks and months ahead will see competing narratives in the public arena from all sides of this issue. You can bet on it.

News You Can Use

CAN PRISON REFORM PASS GO?

What do you call a bill in 2018 that has the support of President Trump, Jared Kushner, the Koch brothers, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), and leftwing activist and former Obama Administration official Van Jones? By any measure, with such broad support in such a partisan climate, you may figure it would be called “a law,” but opposition against the FIRST STEP Act puts its enactment in jeopardy. The legislation is the culmination of bipartisan work on criminal justice reform to reduce recidivism through better access to rehabilitation programs for non-violent offenders, and while imperfect, it presents the best opportunity to “implement fixes that civil rights advocates have sought for years.”

Opponents of the bill who argue that it does not go far enough have tried to “tank the effort by waging an opposition campaign,” which according to Rep. Jeffries, is “riddled with factual inaccuracies” and criticisms that are “without any basis in reality.” It remains to be seen how this policy fight will play out, but here are two pieces of advice that one should take to heart for future policy battles: 1) an opposition effort detached from facts must be challenged and exposed, and 2) be prepared to overcome the opposition early and often – before you are in the homestretch.

GROWN IN THE USA

This year, expect shortages on a range of agricultural products, from avocados to celery to asparagus. Why? Because of the American farm economy’s worker shortage that is receiving less media attention in the immigration debate than it should. The shortage is not due to free trade deals like NAFTA, but rather due to farm workers moving onto higher-paying construction jobs and no new influx of workers to replace the older generation who came before them. The situation is compounded by an “overly complicated” H-2A visa process, which produce growers are advocating to make simpler and more streamlined so that they can bring workers into the U.S. to harvest their crops.

Policymakers looking for a way forward on immigration have proposed measures that would cap the amount of farm worker visas. However, given the economic impact that such a diminished quota would have on American jobs, at the precise time when the industry is having to import produce and is already losing money on crops that cannot be picked, this aspect of the debate deserves more consideration before policies codify an already perilous situation.

CHINA’S PROPA-GAMBLE

A recent proclamation in Chinese newspapers instructed readers to “carve Xi Jinping’s speech into our bones and dissolve his spirit into our blood,” thereby continuing the Chinese President for life’s persistence in building a robust propaganda machine that is influencing (read: controlling) many aspects of public life at home and abroad. When coupling such over-the-top rhetoric with the Chinese Communist Party’s tactic of flooding the public arena with “happy, inspirational content intended to distract from controversial issues,” China’s propaganda effort distinguishes itself for its lack of credibility and substance.

While this may meet Xi’s needs with the domestic population in the near term, our experience in fact-based, compelling narratives suggests that its success will be limited if it continues to be viewed as editorially-biased and devoid of substance, to say nothing of the ultimately spurious notion that an authoritarian government can control all aspects of information in perpetuity.

A SOLUTION IN SEARCH OF A PROBLEM

A number of prominent Democrats are lining up behind policy proposals that focus on a federal jobs guarantee. This guarantee echoes policy proposals that were part of President Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal during the depths of the Great Depression, when roughly one-third of the American non-farmer workforce was unemployed and the gross national product decreased from $103.8 billion to $55.7 billion.

Yet, a look at the facts of today’s U.S. economy suggests quite a different reality: low-unemployment that has dropped below 4% for the first time since 2000, and a gross national product that reached an all-time high in the last quarter of 2017. These facts beg the question as to whether a federal jobs guarantee, in lieu of concrete policies to address workforce participation and underemployment, is a solution in search of a problem.

Rx For Lower Drug Prices

RX for Lower Drug Costs, Donation Protestations, and Facts and Credibility

Here’s What You Need To Know

President Trump’s rhetoric toward drug companies, which he has accused of “getting away with murder,” has been heated at times. That is why the industry and others in the health care space were watching closely when the Administration’s plan to lower prescription drug prices was unveiled last Friday. The plan, entitled “American Patients First,” would be a step to fulfilling the President’s campaign promise to reduce the costs that U.S. patients pay for their medications, which are the highest in the world. Here is what you need to know about the plan:

  1. What The Plan Does: Despite the President’s past rhetoric and initial industry fears of “biting” action, the plan included few specifics that would immediately impact prices and no large reforms to the way the system currently operates. The plan seeks to “increase competition, improve negotiation and create incentives to lower list prices of prescription drugs and out-of-pocket costs for consumers,” and some of the ways it proposes to do that is by implementing rebate-sharing in Medicare drug plans (an idea supported by the Obama Administration), promoting generic versions of drugs, including drug pricing in trade negotiations with foreign countries, and requiring manufacturers to publish prices in advertisements. After Trump’s plan was criticized for being light on substance, Health and Human Services Secretary (HHS) Alex Azar briefed reporters on concrete actions he can take as HHS Secretary “with [his] pen” to make changes to the pharmaceutical marketplace without Congressional approval, suggesting the Administration’s seriousness about ultimately backing up its rhetoric.
  2. The Industry’s Reaction To The Plan: The gravest concern for the industry was that the proposal would allow the federal government to negotiate lower Medicare drug prices directly with insurance companies. When this did not come to pass, biotech and pharmaceutical stocks went soaring, as well as those of the pharmacy benefit managers like Express Scripts and CVS – “middlemen” previously condemned by the President. While drug companies that engaged in lobbying the executive branch in hopes of helping shape the plan may be relieved in having been spared from drastic changes to the operating landscape at this time, there is a possibility that the President may diverge from his current course, meaning that companies should continue to remain vigilant in monitoring developments in this policy area.
  3. What Remains Unclear Going Forward: The timeline for the implementation of the plan’s policy changes remains uncertain, as is the extent to which the HHS Secretary will use his pen to implement proposed changes in the marketplace. Because of this, parts of the industry are already signaling a more public lobbying campaign in the coming months while the plan is being debated. Particularly in the runup to the midterm elections, the industry may be a prime target for further public shaming, as well as more robust regulatory attention from both the Administration and Congress, that may impact research and development efforts and raise the specter of greater political risk.

As Trump’s FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted, there is no “silver bullet” to bring down the costs of drug prices, especially when many Americans have unrealistic expectations regarding the trade-offs that would be required to implement policies to lower them. As long as these expectations persist, actual policy proposals will pale in comparison to the rhetoric used in the public arena and contribute to an operating landscape fraught with political and reputational peril for the industry.

News You Can Use

DONATION PROTESTATIONS

The Bay Area has become one of the wealthiest regions in the country and many tech moguls have already pledged to give away much of their fortunes, yet how some have chosen to donate their wealth has attracted scrutiny due to the potential benefits they receive in doing so. The Atlantic investigated the increasing popularity of a donor-advised fund, which is a certain type of charitable account that allows “donors to receive big tax breaks for giving money or stock” with “little transparency and no requirement that money put into [the account] is actually spent.” The rise in use of these funds has also correlated to a drop in donations to more traditional charities and private foundations in the Bay Area.

However, supporters of donor-advised funds point to the benefits of the accounts, which are better-equipped to accept non-liquid assets like stock, reduce the costs of operation needed by traditional nonprofit organizations, allow wealth to accumulate and grow like a charitable savings account, and incentivize people to get more bang for their philanthropic buck as opposed to giving more money in taxes to the federal government. So, while donor-advised funds may become another front in the public affairs campaign against Silicon Valley or the wealthy, as with all narratives in the public arena, there is more than one side to this story.

ROBOTS, CHINA, OR SOMETHING ELSE?

If you thought you knew the cause of the decimation of manufacturing jobs in the United States, think again. In fact, you would not be alone. Although economists’ popular consensus is that Chinese trade is the leading cause, a key expert disputes this consensus, pointing to research he recently posted that links job loss in manufacturing to the displacement of jobs resulting from automation.

China is blamed for the decline of the manufacturing sector largely based on a body of work that shows China’s 2001 entry into the World Trade Organization coincided with stalled growth in the American manufacturing economy, but Carl Frey – the Oxford economist whose study found that automation still has “a significant impact” while controlling for Chinese trade – disagrees, based off of his findings from examining automation anxiety and the 2016 election. For those trying to highlight the benefits of free trade in an operating landscape where consensus is constantly evolving, and where we all at times have only partial information, a competitive advantage that makes sense of the mass of information flows available is more important than ever in achieving their policy objectives.

FACTS AND CREDIBILITY

Much of the focus on curbing the rise of fake news has been on top-down government regulation of tech companies and their platforms, but to curb fake news in favor of a more elevated, fact-based debate may instead require a grassroots approach. Felicia Cravens is a conservative activist who started the Unfakery Facebook page, which hunts for fake news, fake profiles, baiting spammers from overseas, and other forms of misinformation targeting conservatives online.

Since founding the group, Cravens has attracted like-minded conservatives from across the country who have credibility with their side of the political spectrum – which Snopes, PolitiFact, or Media Matters for America may not – to take a discerning view of the facts and context of articles and news shared online, lead where they may, and push back on misinformation by sharing credibly-sourced links. Besides demonstrating a way to curb fake news online without federal regulation, which ultimately stifles competition and benefits entrenched incumbents, another aspect highlighted by Unfakery’s work is that credibility is an integral aspect of leveraging facts to gain a competitive advantage. 

THE “CUT CUT CUT” LIST

The Executive Office of the President’s (EOP) Spring 2018 Unified Agenda of Regulatory and Deregulatory Actions was recently released, and to help you better prepare for what comes next, here is where you can review by agency the proposed deregulatory measures on deck. The “steady, bit-by-bit” deregulation by the Administration has continued persistently despite all of the noise, confusion, scandals, and unforced errors that undermine The White House’s work on a near-daily basis, and will likely have a profound impact on the regulatory landscape beyond the life of this Administration. While the President was ridiculed when he wanted last year’s tax reform law to be called the “Cut Cut Cut Act,” given the Administration’s continuing work to cut regulations, might we propose a simpler name: the “Cut Cut Cut” List.

Where Will The Midterm Wave Break?

Where Will the Midterm Wave Break, Forecasting Failure, and It’s Not Me, It’s HQ2

Here’s What You Need To Know

Last week in The Hill, Delve CEO Jeff Berkowitz detailed steps Republican candidates can take to buck the historical trend and survive this year’s midterm elections by focusing on local issues, gaining an information advantage on their own vulnerabilities and those of their opponents, and engaging early and often to succeed on Election Day. But, in looking at these campaigns from the outside, how can you tell if candidates are doing the right things behind the scenes, and know if the wave will break in their favor, or overwhelm them?

  1. Evidence Of Local Support: Candidates who survive waves focus on their states and districts, spend time building the relationships with neutral organizations, and reap the rewards with volunteers and sustained fundraising. You can tell quickly if campaigns are doing the little things right if their campaign finance reports are filled with donations from constituents, which have been correlated to actual vote totals.
  2. The Key Cash Advantage Number: As we have written about this cycle’s “wave” potential and in the past, incumbent cash advantages mean a great deal at this point in the election cycle. Primaries can drain money from challengers, especially in the crowded fields we have seen form in many moderate districts. Incumbents should not only be raising money from their constituents, but they also need to be consistently out-raising all of their challengers individually.
  3. Presidential Approval Ratings, Localized: Despite conventional wisdom assuming otherwise, President Trump is far more popular in swing-districts than he is nationally, and, similar to any president, as his approval rating goes, so goes the district. National Democrats are trying to localize races to mitigate this problem, but crowded primaries favor the most partisan candidates, and Democratic party nominees may end up being locked into a message out of step with the district.
  4. Candidate Quality Matters: Incumbents can even be protected by fate if the challenging party nominates a weak candidate. As the crowded Democratic primaries start to sort themselves out, there are going to be a few incumbents that would otherwise be in a lot of danger who win re-election because their challenger was not vetted properly for skeletons in their closet, lacks the ability to broaden their message and appeal beyond core Democratic voters, is strategically or politically inept, or lacks the discipline to avoid scandals or missteps when the media spotlight intensifies. Democratic partisans are already buying into the idea that anyone they nominate will win in November (despite some evidence to the contrary), suggesting that the odds of nominating another candidate who is either politically inept or not properly vetted may increase exponentially.

Over the next five and a half months, there is going to be a lot of discussion about whether or not Democrats can ride the midterm wave to a majority in either chamber of Congress. To break through the noise and see which incumbents are actually threatened by a wave, the details of their campaign finance reports, local approval of the President, and the quality of their challengers could tell you more than any pundit.

News You Can Use

IT’S NOT ME, IT’S HQ2

After being cut from the list of finalists for Amazon’s second corporate headquarters, known as HQ2, a number of cities have begun making changes based on what they have learned from their unsuccessful bids. For Detroit, that has meant improving the regional transportation network, while in Cincinnati, the city is focused on developing home-grown tech talent; both cities are focusing on particular shortcomings gleaned from postmortem phone calls with Amazon.

As cities evaluate what will make them attractive places for business and provide opportunity in the 21st century, their desire to strive in the face of defeat is admirable. Additionally, after being criticized for presumably choosing the city that only “shows them the money,” Amazon’s constructive feedback on what would attract business and opportunity demonstrates that this competition is about more than just incentives.

I.P.-GO?

With new rules that were designed to both “act as a magnet for many Chinese companies that otherwise would list in the U.S.,” as well as attract highly-valued U.S. biotech startups, Hong Kong’s stock exchange is hoping to lure companies that would otherwise list their initial public offerings (IPOs) on the New York and Nasdaq stock exchanges.

Yet, despite these revised rules and some companies already showing interest in listing there, Hong Kong’s limited experience in the biotech field – as well as the interest in the exchange from U.S.-based biotech “unicorns” that may see it as an opportunity to maintain their high valuations without being profitable – presents challenges companies and investors should consider before taking the plunge. The volatility of both these factors, as one analyst noted, make the Hong Kong exchange “almost like investing in bitcoin,” suggesting that a deluge of Chinese and U.S. firms choosing Hong Kong over more the established exchanges may be premature.

FORECASTING FAILURE

From 18 spectacularly wrong predictions made at the time of the first Earth Day in 1970 to the futility of energy-technology forecasts dating back to the industrial revolution, Nobel prize-winning physicist Dennis Gabor was onto something when he said that “the future cannot be predicted.” With competing viewpoints regarding energy and the environment commonplace in the media landscape, it can be difficult to make sense of the constant flow of information on all sides of the public policy debate, let alone understand it in the context of insights that inform a company’s or organization’s public affairs strategy.

That is why here at Delve we embrace this uncertainty, operate from a standpoint of “what you don’t know can hurt you,” and provide our clients with an information advantage that they can use to take actions that help them achieve their objectives. Because when you know what you don’t know, you are better prepared to overcome challenges and adapt to the competitive landscape that exists – rather than the one predicted that has yet come to pass.

RX FOR LOWER HEALTH CARE COSTS

Efforts to deregulate the health insurance market in a way that improves choice for consumers will provide welcome relief from high premiums for many in the near-term. However, in a piece published in RealClearHealth, American Enterprise Institute resident fellow James Capretta argues that insurance deregulation in the individual health care market alone is not enough, as the “mishmash of large public subsidies for insurance enrollment, government regulations, and some private activity and incentives” leave lifetime costs, which are already high and expected to rise higher, relatively unchanged.

His policy prescriptions to tackle rising costs focus on creating a “well-functioning marketplace that rewards value, innovation, and efficiency” through “ambitious” legislative proposals. It remains to be seen, though, whether promising developments at the state level to control costs could be replicated by other states, not to mention by a paralyzed and polarized Congress who would need to shepherd an ambitious proposal into law at the national level.

The March for Science

Science Says, Increasing Tech-Literacy, and the Corpse Shah

Here’s What You Need To Know

Last week, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published a proposed rule in the Federal Register that is “an attack on science” and a “gift to polluters.” Well, that is only if you believe the scary rhetoric used by its opponents at the start of what promises to be an intense 30-day public comment period on the controversial rule. Administrator Scott Pruitt and his handling of the EPA have been under intense scrutiny, for reasons both of policyand personality, making it difficult to evaluate proposed rule changes of consequence like this one on their merits alone. Here are the facts you need to know about the EPA’s proposed rule to “strengthen” science, which has been an issue at the forefront of the Trump era:

  • Why Is The Rule Needed? According to the National Association of Scholars, there is a reproducibility crisis across a wide range of modern science and social-scientific disciplines. The findings of many influential journal articles have been unable to be reproduced, whether because of the improper use of statistics, groupthink, arbitrary research techniques, or some other flaw – a topic which should be familiar to regular readers of this newsletter. In work presented in Science in 2015, only 39% of 100 prominent psychology studies could be successfully replicated by independent researchers, suggesting that even top scientific journals suffer from this problem. This crisis poses significant challenges as policymakers propose and implement rules and regulations based on what may simply be supposed scientific findings of much consequence, which is why new standards for using findings to inform policymaking have been proposed for some time.
  • What Does The Proposed Rule Actually Do? The EPA’s rule would “ensure that the regulatory science underlying Agency actions is fully transparent, and that underlying scientific information is publicly available in a manner sufficient for independent validation.” It would do so by requiring the EPA to publish all scientific data used to support studies that inform clean-air and clean-water rules, as well as forbid the use of studies that do not meet this new standard. The EPA would not be the first agency to implement guidelines to enhance the rigor, reproducibility, and transparency of science used as a basis for federal regulations. The National Institutes of Health unveiled new standards to achieve these goals during the Obama Administration.
  • Why Is It Controversial? The proposed rule has been disparaged by critics as “disastrous for public health” because it could result in less science in policymaking due to the burden placed upon the government to spend time and money redacting confidential information like medical records, or disqualifying research that includes sensitive data altogether, before scientific findings are made public. Because of the perceived impact on the environment, opponents of the rule have also attacked the EPA for putting the “profits of regulated industries over the health of the American people.” However, the crux of the matter may be deeper than that: a crisis of trust. Partisans on all sides see scientific evidence from their own perspectives, and selective distrust of science will therefore never disappear, instead fueling debates on controversial regulatory proposals like this one ad infinitum. Even if you agree with the proposed rule, there may be little trust in Administrator Pruitt, whom the USA TodayEditorial Board called an “ethical train wreck,” to correctly implement it, or, conversely, you may worry about a future administrator in a Democratic administration using the rule to obviate contrarian studies that raise questions regarding the need or efficacy of new rules and regulations.
  • What Happens Now? The public has until May 30th to submit their comments, and The Union Of Concerned Scientists sent a letter to the EPA urging the comment period to be extended to a minimum of 60 days with public hearings across the U.S. A group of scientific journals have also released a joint statement critical of the proposed rule, suggesting that the controversial rule will be the subject of significant comment, as well as a target of scrutiny and hyperbole, in this short period of time. Should the rule move forward, it is almost certain to face legal challenges by environmentalists concerned that it raises the bar too high for studies they believe are raising issues for the EPA to address.

On its merits, a proposed rule to ensure the reproducibility of scientific findings that inform approximately $394 billion worth of EPA regulations should be a welcome development, regardless of political persuasion. Unless, that is, scientific findings and standards are only worthy of defense when they confirm and further a political ideology, irrespective of rigor and reproducibility, which is why this reasonable sounding rule has caused such a furor.

News You Can Use

THINGS AREN’T ALWAYS AS THEY SEEM

Two recent, although quite different, stories in the news illustrate the value of an information advantage when it comes to making sense of the relentless information flows in the public arena. In the former, photographer Marcio Cabral told Wildlife Photographer of the Year judges that he had spent three years returning to the Brazilian plains, waiting for the perfect moment to capture his award-winning photo of an anteater digging into a termite mound. On tips from anonymous third-parties, however, an investigation was launched into the photo, ultimately uncovering that it was a fraud – and that the anteater was stuffed!

Meanwhile, the nominee for Veterans Affairs secretary Rear Admiral Ronny Jackson withdrew his name from consideration after coming under considerable fire alleging misconduct on the job, despite his and The White House’s dispute of the allegations, some of which were shown by public records to be highly questionable to begin with. Yet, that unfortunately did not stop Democratic Senator Jon Tester from leaking the allegations against Jackson before having all of the facts.

The public arena is fast-moving, and things are not always as they seem. Whether it is a photo of an anteater or the reputation of a Rear Admiral, having an information advantage that understands vulnerabilities and what you’re up against, is key to preventing unforced errors and achieving your public affairs objectives.

ANCESTRY.CON?

After killing 12 people between 1978 and 1986, as well as committing a number of other heinous acts, 72-year-old Joseph James DeAngelo was taken into custody from his suburban middle-class home outside of Sacramento last week. DeAngelo, who authorities believe is the elusive Golden State Killer, was caught in part due to a string of DNA evidence that was recorded at several crime scenes and linked to DNA evidence contained on a consumer genealogical website like Ancestry.com, 23andme, and MyHeritage.

The consumer genealogical website significantly reduced the size of the search and the possible suspects, although the exact details surrounding how authorities used the sites remains confidential. While it is certainly a welcome development that victims’ families will receive closure and a dangerous individual is no longer loose, the use of consumer genealogical sites by law enforcement, which have already raised ethical and privacy concerns for some time, may again draw attention from regulators to examine privacy and data protections in the burgeoning genetic testing industry.

THE CORPSE SHAH

The Iranian theocracy is facing numerous threats – unemployment, economic mismanagement, pressure over its nuclear program, continued popular protests – but the latest threat may be from the mummified corpse of someone who has been dead since 1944. While renovating a Shiite shrine near the site of the former tomb of Reza Shah Pahlavi in Tehran, construction workers are believed to have uncovered the missing remains of the late king, whose son and monarchy was overthrown by the Ayatollah Khomeini and his followers in the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The monarchy, which was at the time “widely seen as corrupt, despotic and dissolute,” is now viewed as being responsible for ambitious construction and education projects that led to the modernization of the country in the early 20th century. Regardless of whether this newfound appreciation for the monarchy is due to nostalgia, the bigotry of low expectations, or a combination of both, the Iranian regime has downplayed the story, suggesting they understand the threat to their power from a viral narrative that raises awareness of the modernizations under the monarchy in contrast with the increasingly despotic regime that took power in its place.

INCREASING TECH-LITERACY

Fact-finding is a staple for legislators responsible for policymaking, whether achieved through congressional delegation travel or public hearings. However, if some of the questions asked during Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s testimony last month before Congress showed anything, it is that many legislators would benefit from greater technological literacy, as the policies they then craft would be the product of an understanding of not only the common technologies, but also provide a framework for addressing the “foundational questions of accountability, fairness, and abuse of power” that stem from them.

Should policymakers take responsibility for gaining more foundational tech knowledge, the media may also have an integral role to play as well, because measured journalism – rather than “click bait fodder” – that raises the level of knowledge on these issues can help hasten this digitally-enhanced future, although judging from the fallout of the White House Correspondents Dinner, that may be too much to ask.

Is Universal Basic Income DOA?

Is UBI DOA, an “Arm” up on the Competition, and the Last Straw

Here’s What You Need To Know

Last week, the Finnish government decided not to continue funding its well-publicized trial of a universal basic income (UBI), opting instead to explore other avenues to experiment with welfare policies tailored to meet the needs of the increasingly fluid, dynamic 21st century economy. UBI has long been heralded as the policy answer to automation, and Finland’s experiment was thought to be the catalyst to demonstrate how such a program could really work. In today’s era of disruption, the future of work and its potential policies deserve more attention in the public debate because change is a constant, but it is now happening quicker. So, what does Finland’s delve into UBI mean for the future of work, and how can policymakers in the U.S. learn from it?

  • The Details Of Finland’s UBI Experiment: Since January 2017, a random sample of 2,000 unemployed people between the ages of 25 to 58 have been receiving a monthly payment of 560 euros through Finland’s two-year pilot program. This income replaces any existing social benefits, and the recipient continues to receive the monthly income even if they find work. The program is the largest state-sponsored UBI experiment to date, and one of its principal aims – in addition to alleviating poverty and compensating for jobs threatened by automation – is to reduce bureaucracy and test whether UBI is a more flexible policy for providing assistance and work incentives than existing welfare programs.
  • The Experiment’s Shortcomings: Finland’s experiment is being run by Kela, the country’s national welfare body, and although the hope was for it to gather new insights into logistics and consequences of a UBI system, poor planning has led to a small sample size that is not scientifically viable. In addition, the design of the experiment is flawed in that it only gives monthly income to unemployed persons rather than a universal income to everyone, and was further hindered at the time of implementation by a conservative government in power that was promoting economic austerity in the midst of economic hardship – hardly the ideal time to, as co-directors at a Finnish economic think tank wrote, “spearhead a leftist benefits program.” Olli Kangas helped design the experiment and is now running it for Kela, a process that in practice he labeled a “nightmare.” Given the experiment’s flaws and the difficulty in implementing it in a rich country with high levels of social spending, the final results should be viewed skeptically and serve as a cautionary tale on the challenges of a UBI system.
  • What Do UBI Experiments Look Like In The U.S.? Wired Ideas contributor Joi Ito considers UBI “a partisan issue that, paradoxically, has bipartisan support.” When it comes to UBI, views do not fall along traditional partisan lines, with those voicing support ranging from Milton Friedman and Charles Murray to Martin Luther King, Jr. and Bernie Sanders, and strange bedfellows like Joe Biden and Ben Sasse united in opposition. This range is largely because a UBI system can mean different things to different people, and actual policies can vary as to its theoretical implementation. Some current developments in the U.S. on this front include an experiment in Stockton, California where 100 families receive $500 a month for 18 months, funded through a grant from an organization started by Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes; legislation passed in Hawaii that explores making UBI a reality in that state; and a declared presidential candidate who is running solely on the issue of UBI.
  • Alternatives To UBI Going Forward: Finland’s experiment demonstrates the challenges of a UBI system, not least of which is the impact that a government check would have on the value of work and society at large. Even then, that assumes policymakers across the ideological spectrum could agree on what exactly such a policy entails, and garner the support of their constituencies, which seems unlikely. Policies focused on adaptability and continuous education, rather than an “inverted form of feudalism,” could instead provide a better way forward. Instead of more universal models, a cautious approach to “end of work” schemes – which recognizes the futility of predicting the future – may better serve the policy debate, as “a private economy is far more dynamic than the straight line projections … futurists can grasp.”

The largest state-sponsored UBI experiment appears to be dead-on-arrival, but the debate surrounding the future of work continues. As policymakers present solutions for technological disruption, whether a future valued on work over a government check, direct government intervention, the human capital side of the equation, or something else, Finland’s experiment serves as a cautionary tale for policymakers developing ideas for the 21st century economy.

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AN “ARM” UP ON THE COMPETITION

Venture capital may not be the first thing that comes to mind when thinking about your airline of choice, yet since 2016, JetBlue Technology Ventures (JTV) has been incubating, investing in, and partnering with “early stage startups at the intersection of technology and travel.” The Silicon Valley-based venture arm of the airline is a first-of-its-kind in its industry, aimed at “driving innovation in the travel and hospitality industries, [making] the airline some money, and [getting] it a seat at the table as some of the most exciting technologies come down the pike.”

Should infusing venture capital into its operations provide JetBlue with a competitive advantage such as that enjoyed by Southwest Airlines in the first decade of this century, when the latter famously loaded up on hedges against higher fuel prices, and which became a common practice among its competitors, in-house investment arms may become as common for airlines as lounges, credit cards, and phone apps.

THE WAR ON STRAWS 

Sunday was Earth Day, and the Chicago White Sox’s Guaranteed Rate Field celebrated by becoming the first Major League Baseball stadium at which customers will not automatically receive plastic straws in their drinks, and they will receive a biodegradable straw only upon request. This change comes on the heels of a meeting of the Commonwealth Heads of Government in London, where a proposal to do-away with single-use plastics was introduced, and U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May declared that “plastic waste is one of the greatest environmental challenges facing the world.”

Yet the facts of straw use being cited are nonsense, and the similar bans on single-use plastic bags may actually have the opposite impact intended on the environment. This reality has not dissuaded policymakers, though, who continue to forge ahead. Should interests seek to slow or disrupt these efforts, a public affairs strategy focused on sharing the facts with the public may be the most effective way to move the needle in the debate.

‘TIS THE SEASON FOR SHAREHOLDER ACTIVISM

The season of annual corporate meetings is upon us, and companies are facing political and reputational challenges from both investor and professionalized activism. Recent guidance issued by the Securities and Exchange Commission may play a role in helping companies avoid putting proposals pertaining to everything from “greenhouse gas emissions to discrimination to wasteful K-Cups” on shareholder proxy ballots, but in the public debate, traditional public affairs and reputation management efforts are no longer enough to ensure these meetings, and the rest of a company’s corporate strategy, can be implemented in today’s Age of Activism.

Rather than “hire more lawyers or create more brochure-ware,” Managing Director at BSR and Adjunct Professor at Fordham Law Alison Taylor suggests the best reaction to this new environment is “to equip the corporate fortress with stronger bridges and moats,” a process that can in part be achieved through a competitive intelligence effort that wholly understands the makeup and motivations of an issue’s stakeholders.

CALL ME BIG PASTA

Carb-lovers were rejoicing earlier this month when Newsweek shared a study suggesting that eating pasta was linked to weight loss. But a follow-up report by Buzzfeed discovered that Newsweek “and many other stories failed to note … that three of the scientists behind the study in question had financial conflicts … including ties to the world’s largest pasta company, the Barilla Group,” and listed “Big Pasta’s” ties to scientific conferences, academic studies, and even think tanks.

At Delve, we help our clients gain an information advantage so that they can understand their own vulnerabilities and the network of influence opposing them in the public arena, and both Big Pasta and Buzzfeed hit speed bumps on this front. The former should have anticipated this information becoming public and proactively prepared to push back. As for the latter, Buzzfeed should have been aware that it is difficult to have their critique taken seriously when they have aided and abetted similar efforts in the past, and have come under fire for how advertisers have influenced their editorial content in several noted controversies.

Teachers Protest In The Oklahoma State Capitol

Teachers Featured, Something Syriasly Wrong, and Got Fake Milk?

Here’s What You Need To Know

Educators across the country have been emboldened by the teacher’s strike in West Virginia that resulted in a 5% pay raise, and although it ended last month, since then, teachers in red states like Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Arizona have followed suit – in some cases shutting down schools – to pressure lawmakers to respond to their concerns. As with most public policy issues that gain notoriety, grow quickly, and feed into a larger narrative, it can be difficult to untangle the particular concerns of different stakeholders from whatever focus the media and organizations with their own agendas latch onto. Here is what you need to know about these teacher protests:

  • What Are Teachers Protesting? Teachers in different states have raised different concerns. For example, in West Virginia, where teacher pay ranked 48th in the country, the focus was on a pay increase for the coming school year to help control rising healthcare costs. Teachers in Arizona have also targeted pay as their key issue, while those in Oklahoma have focused on a broader set of demands pertaining to an increase in teacher pay, public school funding, and health care funding. In Kentucky, teacher protests are in response to recently approved legislation that reforms their pension system, which has ranked as one of the worst pension crises in the country.
  • Why Now? In the wake of the Great Recession, many states and districts cut costs by reducing spending on education, which has naturally impacted teachers. As the economy has improved and the labor market has tightened, teachers that accepted pay freezes and budget cuts are less inclined to continue doing so now. There is also speculation that political considerations are to blame for the protests, which some in the media and among progressive activists are framing as a backlash “to Paul Ryan’s conservatism” and the “GOP austerity mindset” that predominates in those states. However, this appears to be projecting by partisans seeking to simplify this complex issue into “us vs. them” political tribalism, as exhibited by the fact that both West Virginia and Kentucky had Democratic governors as recently as 2017 and 2015, respectively.
  • Have Teachers Been Successful In Obtaining Their Objectives? While teachers in West Virginia succeeded in receiving their desired 5% increase, and Arizona Governor Doug Ducey announced a plan to increase teacher pay by 20% by 2020, teachers in Oklahoma have obtained only 60% of the pay raise they wanted. The results are likewise less clear in Kentucky, where pension reforms enacted by the state legislature were considered mild but necessary to move the system back from the brink of financial collapse, suggesting that the teachers’ particular concern there will not be solved anytime soon. But, the relative success overall thus far seems to showcase the power of “unseemly teachers’ strikes” in achieving public policy objectives.
  • What Happens Now? The West Virginia strike was just the beginning of more teacher protests across the country, as demonstrated by professionalized activists and organizations coming into the fold to boost localized protesters voicing their concerns on specific policy issues. Predictably, such politicization by professionals has catapulted state policy issues into larger political ones, as Democrats hope to use the protests to mobilize support ahead of this year’s midterm elections and center-right groups work to counter this momentum. When protest movements get further and further away from the original, concrete policy issue, the narrative being propagated at the national level may only loosely resemble the facts. Going forward, teachers at the local level may want to keep this challenge in mind as the temptation to raise the profile of their particular concerns present itself.

It remains to be seen whether this year’s wave of protests will be different from those experienced in Wisconsin in 2011 or Chicago in 2012, or if protests like these will become more common as there is greater demand for increasingly scarce public funds (and the midterm elections grow closer). Already, teachers in places like Colorado and California are continuing the wave of protests, and as developments unfold there and elsewhere, remember that the sum of a larger protest narrative is often different from its parts.

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GOT FAKE MILK? 

Maryland dairy farmers Randy and Karen Sowers are suing the FDA over labeling requirements that would require their South Mountain Creamery to relabel the skim milk they sell to thousands of mid-Atlantic customers as “imitation” milk. The suit, which was filed with the help of the non-profit Institute for Justice, focuses on an FDA regulation that allows a product to be called “skim milk” only if it includes added synthetic vitamins A and D.

However, the Sowers’ product follows the dairy origin of the term, ’skimming’ the cream off of the fresh milk without any additives, meaning that they need to label their product as an “imitation” – thereby confusing consumers and potentially hurting business – or face thousands of dollars in fines and even jail time. While there is legitimate need for regulations ensuring food safety, as this week’s 200-million-plus egg recall over salmonella fears demonstrates, the Sowers’ lawsuit highlights some of the nonsensical regulations that could stand to be “skimmed” for the benefit of small businesses and consumers.

SOMETHING SYRIASLY WRONG

Few roles are as crucial as chair of next month’s United Nations (UN) Conference on Disarmament, particularly in light of further chemical attacks in Douma, Syria. Yet in another irony fit for the UN, the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad is set to preside over the 65-nation conference, which has been integral, along with its predecessors, in negotiating the treaties limiting proliferation and use of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons.

Given that the U.S. and its allies have concluded that the Assad regime is responsible for the use of chemical weapons against its own citizens in Syria, the U.S. ambassador to the conference, Robert Wood, has stated that Syria “has neither the international credibility nor any moral authority” to lead the forum, despite being its turn in the alphabetical rotation used among the 65 member countries. It remains to be seen whether the U.S., European Union, and UN chief Antonio Guterres will protest the conference, but regardless, the Syrian regime’s participation would be seriously wrong and undermine the body’s credibility at the precise time when it is needed most.

CONGRESS, THE COURT, AND QUILL

It’s tax week, and the ramifications on this week’s events may go beyond just write-offs, federal income taxes, and local taxes. That is because the Supreme Court heard arguments on Tuesday in a case brought by South Dakota that urges the Court to overturn a 1992 decision in Quill Corp v. North Dakota, which prevents states from collecting sales tax from out-of-state vendors. South Dakota, which has no state income tax and therefore depends on sales tax revenue, describes the ruling in Quill as outdated, arguing that the Court needs to act because Congress has not addressed this issue in the 26 years since the original ruling. Furthermore, the growth in  online e-commerce giants like Amazon, eBay, and others has only added to the urgency to resolve it.

Yet, while overturning Quill may seem to benefit states in a step toward 21st century commerce, the patchwork of state-specific sales tax laws could result in a regulatory burden on small businesses and startups. If states would be looking for policymakers to then enact a nationwide e-commerce policy, they may ultimately find themselves waiting for Congress to act again.

VISITOR LOGS IN PERSPECTIVE

A lawsuit brought by the watchdog group Public Citizen will allow voters to examine the visitor logs for four agencies in the White House complex, and may raise further questions about whether such information is useful on its own to the public. Despite the lawsuit’s focus on the current administration, other administrations have not escaped scrutiny due to their actions on this issue. Visitor logs, like many raw records obtained through the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), can be difficult to decipher due to too much information and too little context, the result of which can lead people to miss important trends.

So, while the new logs will offer a glimpse of who is visiting certain White House offices, it is just that – a glimpse, and one without much context at that – which is why Delve analysts are specially trained to synthesize vast amounts of public records through a public policy lens and into neatly-packaged, actionable insights.

Saudi Crown Prince MBS

Crown Prince and the Revolution, Leveling the Bureaucratic Playing Field, and Lattes for Litigation

Here’s What You Need To Know

Last week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS, concluded his extensive three-week trip across the United States in which he met with politicians in D.C., business leaders and academics in Boston, tech titans in Silicon Valley, and more. While meetings with Jeff Bezos and Hollywood agent Ari Emanuel may have garnered media attention, MBS’s comments about Israelis’ “right to have their own land” have not gotten as much attention as they deserve. They are profoundly significant, as are the implications they have for the region at-large:

  • What MBS Said: In a wide-ranging interview with Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic, MBS said: “I believe the Palestinians and the Israelis have the right to have their own land.” This statement of an explicit “right,” as noted by Goldberg, goes beyond the reality of Israel’s existence spoken by moderate Arab leaders to an acknowledgement of “Jewish ancestral land,” a “red line” not previously crossed. MBS also said Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “makes Hitler look good,” a comparison we may speculate was tailored to maximum effect for Western ears, and he brushed off a question about anti-Semitism in Saudi Arabia by stating that the “country doesn’t have a problem with Jews.”
  • Why This Is Significant: Saudi Arabia has never formally recognized Israel’s right to exist, but that has not stopped the kingdom under MBS from growing closer to it, largely due to mutual antipathy toward the Iranian regime. Beyond this threat, MBS noted in a Time cover story that Saudi Arabia and Israel “have a lot of potential areas to have economic cooperation” as well. This goodwill was displayed in practical terms last month, when an Air India flight from New Delhi to Tel Aviv flew through Saudi airspace, effectively ending a 70-year-ban on using its airspace for flights to or from Israel and shortening flight time by two hours. In addition, the Crown Prince’s itinerary on his U.S. tour included meetings with prominent pro-Israel organizations such as AIPAC, Jewish Federations of North America, and others that advocate against Boycott, Divest, and Sanction (BDS) campaigns. This suggests not only friendly words but actions that can lead to a greater, and perhaps more public, rapprochement between the kingdom and Israel.
  • Are There Reasons To Be Skeptical? While the Crown Prince’s comments were significant, they are viewed as “somewhat overrated” by some analysts who see them as part of a “slow, gradual process…not indicative that full normalization…is around the corner.” Indeed, the comments can be viewed as part of the charm offensive to improve the image of Saudi Arabia in the U.S., making MBS’s statements a “smart transaction; not transformation.” With previous Arab leaders like Anwar Sadat having suffered for their support of normalized relations with the Jewish state, and King Salman’s statement of support for the Palestinians after his son’s remarks in the U.S., it remains to be seen how fruitful the Crown Prince’s revolution will ultimately be. After all, this is the Middle East.
  • The Broader Implications On The Middle East: Nevertheless, the impact on the Middle East at this time is profound. The Crown Prince’s comments to The Atlantic came just days after renewed tensions on the Gaza-Israel border resulted in 17 dead Palestinians, and although his comments were viewed in parts of the Muslim world as “pay[ing] lip service to the idea of a two-state solution and the need to protect the Palestinians,” he was “notably quiet” on what steps Saudi Arabia would take to do that. It is clear he has concluded Iran is the biggest threat to the Saudi’s future, and in that context, Israel appears as a viable partner to advance a larger transformation of the region and check the Iranian regime’s influence. As a result, Palestinian leadership is finding themselves in an awkward position in today’s changing Middle East, and running out of allies as countries like Saudi Arabia plan to move beyond oil wealth and toward a more open society.

The Crown Prince’s whirlwind visit to the U.S., and the comments he made during interviews, mark a revolution happening in the Middle East that may be more successful, lasting, and transformational than the Arab Spring. As relations between old adversaries are realigned due to overlapping strategic interests, governments throughout the region may ultimately face more pressure from their people who desire more opportunity and greater liberalization.

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LEVELING THE BUREAUCRATIC PLAYING FIELD

Tasks that used to require time, billable hours, and especially dogged persistence, are now becoming automated as artificial intelligence (AI) takes its place alongside human legal professionals. In some cases, AI-backed tools are providing legal representation to appeal parking tickets, property taxes, and even refund savings from airline tickets. The impact of this disruptive development goes beyond the legal profession, as municipalities become increasingly concerned that technology-powered services that streamline appeals processes and advocate on users’ behalves can cost governments revenue derived from parking tickets and property taxes.

While governments that are already facing budgetary constraints may be forced to adapt to the increase in appeals and reduction in revenues, residents, as a CityLab article about a precursor to today’s lawyer bots noted, now have the ability “to leverage the fine print in city regulations with the same ease that bureaucrats can.”

NO PLATFORM, NO PEACE

From the campus to the newsroom, tactics to censor and remove public figures whose opinions “offend the sensibilities of intersectionality devotees” continue. Matthew Continetti, editor in chief of the Washington Free Beacon, examined this reality and its effect on journalism in light of developments such as The New York Times opinion editor holding a series of open meetings for staff in response to criticism of the paper’s opinion section, and the hiring and firing of conservative commentator Kevin Williamson from The Atlantic.

In “de-platforming” people whose views are considered politically threatening, Continetti writes, “media, tech, and entertainment conglomerates” transform into “satellite campuses of Middlebury and Berkeley,” noting that the fallout from such actions have harmed precisely the institutions – the NFL, Silicon Valley, and Hollywood, for example – that have embraced the worldview. This suggests that Delve CEO Jeff Berkowitz’s warning to banks against yielding to activist pressure is applicable more broadly, as there is little hope for comity, regardless of the institution, as long as “today’s professionalized and digitized activism cannot be swayed, satiated or appeased for long.” 

MADURO’S NOT-SO-FUNNY MONEY

Simply dropping three zeros from the value of Venezuela’s existing currency, the bolivar, may seem like a fantastically comedic way to try and get the country’s rampant inflation under control, yet that is exactly what Venezuelan Dictator Nicolas Maduro did. Maduro tweeted the announcement of a new currency, the Sovereign Bolivar, that will replace the existing currency beginning in June, and conveniently for the regime, 1,000 current bolivars will be worth one sovereign bolivar.

Venezuelan authorities, who have already tried gimmicks such as price controls on products and a state-sponsored cryptocurrency, hope this time their tactic will work. The Bolivarian Revolution’s continued fumbling of economic policy and arbitrary valuation to the sovereign bolivar would give new meaning to the term “funny money,” if only the results of their disastrous policies were not so tragic.

LATTES FOR LITIGATION

In a February edition of TL;DR, we discussed the increased scrutiny being messaged against Big Sandwich and Big Coffee, noting that “regulations…that get passed on to the customer…and make it difficult…to take health warnings seriously” are likely to gather little support from businesses and consumers. So, who benefits from such regulations?

Cato’s Walter Olson believes regulations like California’s Proposition 65, which opens coffee retailers like Starbuck’s, Peet’s, and others to liability if they do not properly warn consumers that a naturally occurring substance in coffee caused cancer in lab animals, benefit the state’s “small industry of nonprofits and attorneys that make a living by filing suits.” With one lawsuit asking for fines from coffee companies for as much as $2,500 for every person exposed to the substance in question since 2002, despite the dubious science behind coffee’s health detriments, opponents of frivolous warning signs may want to further uncover and expose the connection between such propositions and the lawsuit industry to better articulate their position in the public arena.

Anti-Pipeline Agenda Over Policies

Anti-Pipeline Agenda Over Policies, Census Hysteria, and Digital Assistants’ Next Act?

Here’s What You Need To Know

In a retrospective piece celebrating protesters that gathered at Standing Rock in 2016 and 2017 to fight against the Dakota Access pipeline (DAPL), one veteran of the protests told Buzzfeed, “I’m still fighting. I’m only done when that pipeline is dug out of that ground. I’ve only just begun.” Another declared, “After Standing Rock there will be so much more to fight for. Corporations and dirty politicians might have thought they won the battle, but they will not win the war.” It is not surprising, given these comments, that energy executives gathered in Houston last month for CERAWeek, one of the premiere energy events in the world, had the issue of protests at the top of their minds. But do these potentially disrupting events matter outside of the industry?

In vowing to “fight back” against environmental activism and sabotage, pipeline CEOs have made clear that the clashes at DAPL, the biggest story of 2016 after the presidential election, were not a one-off occurrence. They were a demarcation into a new age of activism, which has only continued to percolate beneath the surface – and appear at other energy projects across North America. While this key issue does not tend to reach national attention until protests become massive, its implications could impact the economy and our security before then. Here is what you need to know about it:

  1. Energy Activism Past? Not So Fast: Anti-pipeline protesters reaffirmed that Standing Rock was only the beginning. As an activist told Buzzfeed, the “sacred fire in the camp left with all of us and ignited a larger movement of Water Protectors all over the globe. Standing Rock was the beginning of something special and the work is not done.” This “sacred fire” has gained significant momentum, with DAPL veterans leading protests across the continent. Don Gentry, the chairman of the Klamath Tribes in Oregon, published a New York Times op-ed saying the next Standing Rock fight is against the Jordan Cove terminal and Pacific Connector Gas Pipeline in the Northwest. He is far from the only activist hoping to create the next DAPL. The increased media coverage of DAPL veterans highlights that energy activism is continuing, despite the lull in coverage over the prior year. If anything, the consequences of the upcoming confrontations may be more severe.
  2. Financial And Legal Actions Threaten Economic Growth: Notably, new climate lawsuits have the potential to result in disastrous financial and legal consequences for the energy industry and the millions of jobs that depend on it. Besides financial reparations, climate change cases could establish a new legal standard that environmentalists will use across the country to block critical infrastructure projects necessary for meeting American and global energy needs. Should courts in different jurisdictions reach different conclusions, it could also potentially set up a U.S. Supreme Court battle that further politicizes and polarizes views of the industry. If courts start being more sympathetic to activists, as some are already doing, energy companies could be stuck in litigation for years. In addition, divestment campaigns targeting major financial institutions backing pipeline projects and fossil fuels investment continue, posing serious political and reputational risk to the financial sector.
  3. Energy Tensions Impacting National Security: A report by the U.S. House Committee on Science, Space and Technology concluded that Russians exploited American social media to promote a campaign hurting fossil fuel research and the expansion of natural gas development in the U.S., with the ultimate goal of benefitting the Russian energy sector. Prominently, the report also claimed the Russian government may have funneled money to U.S. environmental NGOs, including the Sierra Club and the League of Conservation Voters. While the committee provided little evidence of this funding in their public report, Russian-funded propaganda outlets, such as RT and Sputnik, frequently promote leaders from these groups and their messaging has been utilized in Russian influence campaigns. More broadly, as long as Europe depends on Russian natural gas – highlighted by Germany’s approval last week of Russian oil giant Gazprom’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline a day after expelling four Russian diplomats due to the Skripal poisoning in the United Kingdom, as well as the import of natural gas to the U.S. from a sanctioned Russian company in January – national security challenges are ripe to be exacerbated by environmentalists seeking to advance their green agenda.
  4. Enviros Focus On Pipelines Over People: New England’s extremely cold winter has already pushed its energy grid to the brink, and it will likely happen again, making the need for more pipeline infrastructure for natural gas critical to “relieving this constraint” and preventing a future of “rolling blackouts” at the precise time residents in the region need energy the most. Unfortunately, the Northeast is an epicenter of energy activism, illustrated by the 2015 protest in West Roxbury, Massachusetts where 198 activists were arrested protesting a gas pipeline. Last week, a judge acquitted 13 of those protesters after they argued that their actions to stop climate change were a legal “necessity.” If activists are able to find more sympathetic judges like this one across the country, the climate action defense could become common and encourage more lawless tactics by protesters that damage property and threaten public safety, greatly impacting law-abiding residents of all and no ideology who depend on energy.

Although not featured in today’s national media spotlight, actions taken by environmentalists to advance their anti-pipeline agenda across North America have ramifications on policies well-beyond the energy sector. While energy executives at CERAWeek were discussing the implications of this activism on their businesses, their attention should serve as a warning to policymakers and business leaders who need to take this risk seriously and prepare for it now – before the next crisis hits.

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CENSUS HYSTERIA

Seventeen states, seven cities, and the U.S. Conference of Mayors are suing the Census Bureau and Commerce Department to remove a new citizenship question from the 2020 Census. The lawsuit, which is the third filed on this issue in just two weeks, has led to hysteria alleging sinister motives, everything from “suppress[ing] the political influence of Latinos and communities of color” to “whitewash[ing] Latinos out of existence.” The Census has not asked all U.S. households a question about citizenship since 1950, although it has continually asked some variation of the question to a subsample of households using the now-defunct “long form” or ongoing annual surveys, and, ironically, the Justice Department asked to reintroduce the citizenship question to help with its enforcement of Section Two of the Voting Rights Act, which requires majority-minority districts.

Given that the Obama Administration used Section Two “as a cudgel against GOP redistricting plans and voter ID laws,” and that its increased and more informed enforcement would “continue a longtime progressive policy,” the hysteria surrounding the Census seems to be an overreaction based on hostility to this Administration, rather than the policy itself. As with many claims about policy pronouncements in the Trump era, we would all do well to take a deep breath, because the hysteria obfuscates the facts about the important policy question at hand and makes it more difficult to address meaningful problems with proposals.

DIGITAL ASSISTANTS’ NEXT ACT?

Amazon and Google, makers of the Alexa and Google Home digital assistant devices, recently filed patents that outline what the future may look like for devices that monitor what their owners do or say at home. Among the patents under consideration include a “voice sniffer algorithm” that can hear and analyze words in real-time to tailor ads, audio monitoring to detect whether a child is engaged in mischief, and even an application to determine a speaker’s mood.

Both companies insist that their devices only record and process audio “after users trigger them by pushing a button or uttering a phrase,” but with high scrutiny due in part to calls to regulate Facebook and other tech firms amid growing mistrust of tech in a “post-Cambridge Analytica world,” the legal and ethical implications of such technologies raise further questions for policymakers to consider as they build the regulatory framework for proliferating 21st century technologies. It also shows that in this era, public records that used to be fairly inaccessible to the public can now bring significant scrutiny if not presented correctly.

UNDERWATER, NOT UNAPPRECIATED, CABLES 

The increased activity of Russian ships and submarines around underwater communications cables is causing alarm among the U.S. and its allies, who fear “the Kremlin might be taking information warfare to new depths.” There are approximately 400 fiber-optic cables that run 620,000 miles under the sea, which are mostly owned by private companies, and “carry almost all of the communications on the internet – including calls, emails, texts and $10 trillion worth of daily financial transactions.”

It remains to be seen whether Moscow is interested in cutting the cables, tapping into them, posturing, or perhaps there is a completely innocent explanation altogether. However, particularly in the aftermath of cyber offensives on the U.S. energy grid and the political processes in the U.S. and Europe, critical underwater communications infrastructure that is vital to business and national security operations should be included in the policymakers’ public policy discussions to protect critical infrastructure going forward, or otherwise risk being the target tomorrow’s asymmetrical offensive.

BIG OIL TO BIG ELECTRIC?

Royal Dutch Shell and Total, Europe’s biggest private oil producers, are dipping their toes into a whole new market that may foreshadow the future for Big Oil. With growth in renewable energy and electric vehicles, as well as pressure to limit climate change, Shell and Total expect low-carbon electricity to become more prevalent within the coming decades and are buying or creating retail power businesses in preparation.

Maarten Wetselaar, Shell’s head of gas and new energies, said such investment “makes [Shell] future proof in a world where electricity becomes the biggest game in town,” although selling electricity profitably and competing with tech companies that may enter the space mean that success is anything but certain. Regardless, Shell’s and Total’s “long-term bet” on an increasingly electric future suggests one way some Big Oil firms are shifting toward “Big Energy” as the public pressure for cleaner energy increases and the market provides opportunities to adapt.

What exactly would regulation of Facebook look like? CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

“Like” if Open to Regulation, Fake News in Space, and Macadamia to “MAGA”-Damia

Here’s What You Need To Know

The fallout from revelations that Cambridge Analytica used the data of 50 million Facebook users without their permission has led to growing cries to regulate Facebook. Even Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has come to terms with these cries and is preparing to testify before Congress in the coming weeks. COO Sheryl Sandberg has said that the company is “open” to regulation, but what exactly would that regulation look like? Here is our analysis of what steps policymakers are considering to #RegulateFacebook:

  • The Political Track: In addition to an investigation by the Federal Trade Commission, 37 state attorneys general have already sent a letter to Facebook demanding answers about its business practices and safeguards to user privacy, and the ire of elected officials has continued below the state government-level. Cook County, Illinois – where Chicago is located – is suing Facebook for “allegedly violating an Illinois fraud law,” asking it be fined $50,000 for each Illinois user whose data was accessed. Yet this is “just the tip of the iceberg,” says Alvaro Bedoya, who runs the Center on Privacy and Technology at Georgetown University Law Center, because these allegations go to the heart of Facebook’s business model and millions of people have been impacted. So, while these state and local cases may garner headlines, present headaches for the company, and serve as a platform for ambitious elected leaders, the ultimate effect of the political track may be to compel and inform the regulatory solution at the federal level.
  • Is Facebook Too Big To Fail? Although regulators have been reluctant to intervene in tech because the space is so fluid, Facebook also owns Instagram, Whatsapp, and Messenger – meaning the company controls four of the seven biggest social media platforms in the world. A breakup of Facebook into separate companies could mirror the Department of Justice’s breakup of AT&T in 1982, although the potential consequences of such a breakup are unclear. In addition to the hundreds of millions of users who directly use Facebook, many in favor of regulation argue the platform is “akin to infrastructure” because it “gathers information on visitors to any website with a ‘like’ button,” cementing it as an “unavoidable” force that may require regulators to refocus antitrust laws as they pertain to the digital economy.
  • Data Protection As A Right: Another possible approach to regulate Facebook in the U.S. may be to adapt data privacy regulations similar to the European Union’s (EU) General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). The GDPR gives EU residents the ability to give and withdraw consent for the use of their user data, and its regulations apply to all companies that serve EU residents beginning on May 25. Companies out of compliance could be hit with major fines. Should it prove effective, it may provide the groundwork for similar regulations in the U.S. that give citizens the “right to data protection” and require them to give explicit permission to companies for its use. However, there is speculation that U.S.-based tech companies may adapt GDPR compliance procedures to their worldwide operations anyway, making any regulatory framework put in place more likely to be a codification of tech’s adapted practices than entirely new, burdensome requirements, at least for established firms.
  • What Are The Implications For Tech? As with most regulatory frameworks, complicated legal compliance often aims at large, established companies, but hits small, innovative competitors instead. Large scale firms can absorb the cost of new legal and regulatory compliance and have the ability to shape those frameworks to protect their interests and businesses, while complex regulations can hinder startups who do not have the resources to adapt and comply while trying to grow. Thus, regulation to address the current anger at Facebook could inadvertently protect it, and other tech giants like Google, while punishing startups that would contribute to a vibrant, competitive marketplace that benefits consumers. A requirement for tech companies of a certain size to share user data with smaller rivals is one suggestion to address this challenge, but any policy prescriptions should be carefully weighed to determine whether there may be inadvertent consequences. 

Regulatory frameworks established to respond to public uproar regarding a particular company’s controversy are inherently not forward-looking, which presents challenges in today’s fluid tech landscape. In advance of Zuckerberg’s testimony on Capitol Hill, and through all of the noise you will hear from now until then, the calls to #RegulateFacebook should instead raise some broader questions that would inform and elevate the public policy debate.

News You Can Use

FROM MACADAMIA TO “MAGA”-DAMIA

She’s b-a-a-a-a-c-k. ABC’s primetime revival of “Roseanne” debuted this week, and the main character played by comedian, actress, and Macadamia nut farmer Roseanne Barr is a supporter of Donald Trump. With only 19% of Republicans feeling as though their political views are represented in pop culture according to Morning Consult, and only 10% on TV, Barr hopes the show’s focus on working-class characters who represent a “full cross-section of ideas and beliefs” will help “address the polarization that has split families” in a realistic, nuanced, and unifying way.

Notably, Morning Consult’s data shows that Republicans and Democrats both overwhelmingly agree that TV shows should have more characters that represent working-class Americans. If Barr is successful in achieving her goal, it may not only be more welcome news for Trump voters in small-town America, who have largely gotten an economic jolt under President Trump, but also for working-class Americans of all and no partisan persuasion who feel underrepresented in today’s pop culture.

FAKE NEWS IN SPACE

Dozens of headlines across numerous outlets proclaimed that after a year in space, NASA astronaut Scott Kelly “no longer [had the] same DNA as [his] identical twin [Mark Kelly].” If it seemed too amazing to be true, it was. Scott Kelly flew to the International Space Station in 2015 and lived there for 340 days while his brother Mark stayed on Earth, and the identical twins were examined before, during, and after the mission. The examinations were reported by NASA, including the finding that “some of Scott’s genes changed their expression while he was in space, and 7 percent of those genes didn’t return to their preflight states months after he came back.”

This data was misinterpreted and oversimplified by news organizations to proclaim that 7 percent of his genetic code had changed after being in space. As “humans share more than 99 percent of our DNA” and over 98 percent of it “with chimpanzees, our closest living relatives,” it would have meant that Scott returned from space as an entirely new species, demonstrating the importance of details and accuracy when it comes to distilling information into insights – something the analysts at Delve are well-trained to do.

BLESS FREE TRADE DOWN IN AFRICA

This month in Kigali, Rwanda, 44 African leaders signed an agreement to create the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which if ratified, would make the African continent the world’s largest trading block, creating “a single market of up to 1.2 billion people and a collective GDP of more than $2 trillion.” The AfCFTA is the biggest free trade agreement signed since the establishment of the World Trade Organization, and it would help boost trade between African countries and lead to “substantial opportunities for industrialisation, diversification, and high-skilled employment in Africa” that can help lift people out of poverty.

Yet, eleven countries have not signed the agreement, including the continent’s economic powerhouses of Nigeria and South Africa, highlighting the challenges remaining to making this vision a reality. Additionally, with a lack of policies conducive to leveraging free trade and the diversity of political environments across the continent, it remains to be seen whether the political conditions exist to make the most of this opportunity.

JUST PRUITT?

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) administrator Scott Pruitt has been facing heavy criticism due to the costs of his travel expenses, which included approximately $105,000 worth of first-class flights in 2017 and an additional $58,000 for charter flights and transport on a military jet. However, you may be surprised to learn that Pruitt has actually spent less on travel expenses than his predecessors during the previous administration, despite having booked first-class seats on the recommendation of his security detail due to numerous threats against him.

That has not stopped Pruitt from vowing to fly coach instead, which will certainly save some taxpayer dollars, but the narrative against his travel expenses – that ignores the fact that his predecessors spent roughly eight times more than him on international travel – makes one wonder whether the story is really about the travel expenses at all, or whether it’s just personal.

CRYPTO GOES PRO

The crackdown of cryptocurrencies foretold in past TL;DRs has come, with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) releasing a statement requiring trading platforms that allow investors to buy and sell “coins and tokens offered and sold in so-called Initial Coin Offerings [ICOs]” to register under existing federal securities laws. This ending of the “Wild West” days of ICOs marks the opening salvo in the federal government’s regulatory framework to “prevent against fraudulent and manipulative trading practices,” meaning the market must adapt to this “’new paradigm’ of ICO regulation.”

Some companies are doing so by developing “fully compliant” platforms that would be certified by the SEC as “alternative trading systems.” This step demonstrates the continuing trend of the professionalization of cryptocurrencies, which may lead to a short term fall in values and trading volumes, but ultimately may help legitimize the industry and bring it into the financial mainstream.