Caucusing, Oppo Do’s and Don’ts, Polling Gone Bad
Here’s What You Need to Know
With the Iowa Caucuses just eleven days away, top GOP election attorney Ben Ginsberg provides a detailed look at how the process will play out. “More than any of the other primary seasons I’ve seen,” Ginsburg writes in Politico Magazine, “This is the year to expect the unexpected.”
Why is 2016 so different than previous years?
- In 2008 after McCain secured the nomination “too early,” GOP leaders adjusted the primary schedules, encouraging states to push their primaries later and later and penalizing them if they didn’t.
- In 2012 “Romney’s anti-establishment challengers petered out relatively quickly, while the two candidates currently leading the polls this year—Donald Trump and Ted Cruz—are themselves anti-establishment candidates, and are continuing to gain momentum just as the voting season begins.”
Ginsberg breaks down the upcoming primaries:
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February’s Favored Four
4 states; 133 delegates chosen, 5.4 percent of the total
“Winning three of four is the only scenario that could produce a March nominee, and right now, Trump and Cruz are the only candidates who look to have a chance to do that.”
March 1: Demolition Derby Day
12 states; 624 delegates chosen, 31 percent of the total cumulatively
“These contests will no doubt winnow the field. The question is whether more than two candidates will survive the primaries’ first Demolition Derby.”
March 5-12: Everyone Gets a Trophy
11 states; 356 delegates chosen, 45 percent of the total cumulatively
“This stretch of the nominating process isn’t likely to change much.”
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March 15: Primary Groundhog Day
5 states; 357 delegates chosen, 60 percent of the total cumulatively
“Not enough delegates are chosen between March 16 and April 19 to alter the dynamics of a race. So either a presumptive nominee emerges from the voting on March 15, or the long, cold primary season is destined to continue for at least five more weeks.”
News You Can Use
AGENDA SETTER
The Washington Post looks at how Speaker Paul Ryan is uniting the Republican caucus with policy ideas. From taxes to health care to welfare, Ryan is laying out a conservative reform agenda that all wings of the party can support and promote in 2016.
CONNECT-I-TAX
With business giant GE moving its headquarters from the suburbs of Connecticut to Boston, Massachusetts, it’s clearer than ever that state-level policy matters. As The Wall Street Journal reports, “GE first publicly threatened its move in June, blaming a Connecticut budget deal that raised corporate taxes and what company officials described as an inhospitable business climate.” Several states attempted to woo GE, but ultimately, Massachusetts won. Why Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy is trying to nab the “tax” moniker from the state (formerly?) known as Tax-achusetts is unclear.
“OPPO RESEARCH? NO, IT’S YOUR RECORD.”
During the Republican Presidential Debate last week, Rubio slammed Cruz for flip-flopping on several votes saying, “That’s not consistent conservatism. That’s political calculation.” In response, Cruz said: “I appreciate you dumping your oppo research folder on the debate stage.” To which Rubio responds: “No, it’s your record.” That’s how it’s done, folks. A candidate who knows the facts about his opponent’s record is ready to win a debate, and the election.
DEM DEBATE DEBACLE
Whoops! At the Democratic Debate in Charleston Saturday night, Clinton criticized Sanders for voting in favor of the The Commodity Futures Modernization Act in 2000 that took steps to deregulate Wall Street. But, as The Washington Post reports, “Not only did President Bill Clinton sign that bill into law, but key officials in his administration were also credited with helping to craft it.” Candidates need to know their own record and vulnerabilities before they go on the attack.
A DIFFERENT APPROACH TO A CONTRAST AD
The contrast ad (less euphemistically known as an attack ad) usually strikes a negative tone. But the latest ad from Nissan takes a different, riskier approach. The new spot pays homage to Nissan’s pickup truck competitors – Chevrolet, Ford, and Dodge – before introducing the new Nissan Titan XD truck. As AdWeek writes, “The approach seems counterintuitive, but the strategy allows Nissan to take the high road, respectfully acknowledging its antecedents while laying claim to the future.” As Nissan shows, respecting your competitors while differentiating yourself can often be a better strategy than directly attacking them.
OUR BRAND IS CRISIS
Teddy Goff, the digital powerhouse of Obama’s 2008 and 2012 efforts, is at the helm of Hillary’s 2016 digital strategy. And he’s doing something new and different. Hillaryland has built a content production team, comprised of dozens of campaign staffers, rivaling those of BuzzFeed or Vox, in an attempt to engage voters with original content. The strategy includes articles published on a campaign run blog, interactive quizzes, animated GIFs, and videos. But as USA Today writes, “Ultimately, though, digital experts say social media success depends on something only the candidate can deliver: authenticity.” It remains to be seen whether Clinton’s attempt to supersede the media filter will translate into votes or fall victim to the more unvarnished social media strategies of candidates like Donald Trump.
BROKEN POLLING OR CROOKED POLLSTERS?
An official inquiry confirmed pollsters in the 2015 UK elections actively designed their polls to vary less than expected, thus forming an inaccurate statistical consensus. By under representing Conservative voters in their samples, pollsters claimed the “surprise” Tory victory was due to “Lazy Labour” voters or unlikely Conservative voters. In reality, The Telegraph explains, “It was all rubbish. The polls were wrong because the pollsters had – inaccurately – manipulated their own samples.” The inquiry has declined to publish details of manipulation by specific firms, but the conclusions unquestionably damage the already battered industry.
IT’S NOT DELIVERY, IT’S GOVERNMENT REGULATION
Government is encroaching on more and more areas of our lives, including how, what and where we eat. Indeed, a newly-released FDA report claims the pizza boxes you know and love may be killing you. Still, one disruptive area of food commerce has yet to draw significant scrutiny: on-demand food delivery services, like UberEATS. The Manhattan Institute’s Jared Meyer suggests this rapidly growing industry’s success is thanks to “slow-to-catch-up regulators have yet to devise a way to stymie its growth,” as they have with street vendors and food trucks.
KING FOR A YEAR
The Foundation for Economic Education reports some inconvenient truths for those concerned with income inequality: “Your odds of ‘making it to the top’ might be better than you think, although it’s tough to stay on top once you get there. According to research from Cornell University … Over 11 percent of Americans will be counted among the top 1 percent of income-earners … for at least one year,” but “the rate of turnover in these groups is extremely high … Some 94 percent of Americans who reach ‘top 1 percent’ income status will enjoy it for only a single year. Approximately 99 percent will lose their ‘top 1 percent’ status within a decade.”
Mark Your Calendars
Sunday, January 31 – FEC Year-End Reports
February 1 – Iowa Caucuses
February 9 – New Hampshire Primary
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