Archive for category: Public Affairs

At the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Delve CEO Jeff Berkowitz spoke to Jason Rantz of KIRO-TV’s (Seattle, WA) talk radio on the often misunderstood art of opposition research.

Jeff explained that the process will generally start with a vulnerability study, “so we can understand [a candidate’s] strengths and weaknesses as a candidate,” and what issues may exist in their past. He also pointed out that when preparing a candidate and their families for what kind of attacks may come their way, researchers will often be less careful with the facts to simulate how opponents could try to smear them.

The vulnerability study process at Delve is unique because instead of using big questionnaires or relying on a candidate’s memory of their own past for a framework of potential attacks, we dig into every facet of the public record exactly as an opponent’s researchers would. We use this research to build narratives that could be used, fairly or unfairly, by opponents. Our approach ensures candidates not only know the complete public record of their background but can back up the statements they and their campaign make about it and understand how their opponents might use – or misuse – the publicly available information.

Once campaigns begin digging into their opponents however, they need to be 100% accurate in every attack becomes crucial. Jeff talked about how this proved especially important when he prepared an attack on John Kerry for President Bush’s reelection campaign. Dispelling the common misconception of “oppo” as dumpster diving for personal attacks, Jeff explained, “it’s not just about this is a good person or a bad person, it’s also about you’re going to choose them to represent you, where do they stand on the issues.”

Check out the full interview below for a more in depth breakdown of modern opposition research and it’s being used.

This is the fourth and final analysis in a series of insights we’ve provided on different policy platform fights and other issues in the weeks leading up to the Republican and Democratic National Conventions.

Here’s What You Need To Know

All eyes are on Donald Trump’s nomination acceptance speech tonight. But we want to be the first to look ahead to next week’s Democratic National Convention and some unanswered questions the Democratic Party faces. The Clinton campaign has taken a decidedly sharp left turn on several issues with Democrats about to adopt their most liberal platform ever. They have adopted severe limits on natural gas production, an expansion of Obamacare with a so-called “public option,” and a call for a constitutional amendment to overturn the Citizens United Supreme Court decision. On other issues, like trade, the Clinton campaign has decided not to stray as far as Bernie Sanders would have liked her to.

But voters still place economic and national security issues at or near the top of their priority list, and there are fundamental questions on how the Clinton campaign will choose to address these topics at next week’s Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.

• What’s Hillary’s Theme? There’s no doubt that Donald Trump’s personality and his unconventional campaign tactics helped him win the Republican nomination. Yet his success also reflects his strategy of tapping into a theme that connects with Americans across the board: “Make America Great Again.” Meanwhile Hillary Clinton has campaigned under a banner of “I’m with her.” She has an agenda, but her campaign, like her slogan, has been all about Hillary Clinton, with no clear theme or message tying that agenda together. Will she use the Democratic National Convention to offer such a vision or will she stick to talking about what would be her “historic” election and depend on being the “anti-Trump”?
• What’s Hillary’s Message On The Economy? As Delve Executive Vice President Matt Moon mentioned in a Medium post last month, “Clinton has placed her bets on President Obama’s personal popularity and his economic record” but must court “both ‘Bernie or Bust’ voters and ticket-splitting independents, both of whom are unhappy with the economy.” Many of the far-left positions Clinton has taken on taxes, energy, and health care are all subject to criticism for harming economic growth and job creation. How Clinton tries to square her agenda with the electorate’s number one issue of concern could be an impossible mission.
• What’s Hillary’s Message On National Security? Promoting one’s foreign policy experience as events here and around the world showcase chaos and instability is like forcing a square peg into a round hole. According to a recent Suffolk University poll, nearly 54% of Americans feel less safe than they did 5-10 years ago. Yet we have heard very little from Hillary Clinton on how she would approach ISIS, global terrorism, and other national security issues. She could choose to continue to avoid this topic Americans care about deeply or surprise us with a national security message that will have to maneuver around her own record.

Conventions are used to “re-introduce” candidates and push narratives that will be used throughout the rest of the summer and fall as more Americans – especially undecided voters – start paying attention to the election. How Hillary Clinton uses next week’s convention will be a clear signal on both whether and how her campaign approaches the issues voters care about the most.

News You Can Use

BIG SOFTWARE
Major industrial conglomerates like the multinational corporations that make up Big Pharma all had to start somewhere. And most of them began as startups between 1849 and 1901. Wired recently wrote that we could be seeing the birth of “Big Software,” with companies like Google, Amazon, and Apple similarly dominating their industry for the next century. Despite the negative connotation of conglomerates, they have had profoundly positive impacts on industries that thrive on innovation. They also provide an existing corporate structure to innovators, allowing great ideas to be fast tracked instead of forcing creators to start their own company. How future policymakers at the federal and state levels promote (or stymie) these conglomerates will be key to how much growth they provide to our economy.

HYPOCRISY, THY NAME IS DSCC
Several Democratic candidates in key U.S. Senate races are taking advantage of massive loopholes in the federal laws regulating coordination with super PACs by posting instructions for these outside groups on everything from messaging to which media markets to target. While the campaigns and super PACs are technically not allowed to communicate with each other, posting these messages publicly on their websites makes it legally permissible. All this while the Democratic Party standard bearer, Hillary Clinton, has publicly called for a constitutional amendment overturning the U.S. Supreme Court’s Citizens United ruling creating super PACs.

KREMLIN DISINFORMATION COOKBOOK
The East Stratcom Task Force, an organization set up in 2015 to combat Russian disinformation campaigns throughout Europe, recently released a new video outlining the Kremlin’s propaganda strategies in countries like Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. The strategy breaks down the steps into rehashing and manipulating old content, propping it up with a questionable “expert,” then using a dubious western media sources to cement the claims’ legitimacy. The video is just the latest in the group’s ongoing efforts to push back against pro-Kremlin news in the EU and its eastern partner countries.

THE COSTS OF CLINTON UNIVERSITY
Experts now say Hillary Clinton’s plan to allow most Americans to attend public universities at no cost may have the opposite of its intended effect and drive tuition higher. As the past several decades of expanded federal tuition subsidies and subsequent increases in college tuition have shown, universities simply readjust their prices to take into account what the government is willing to pay them for students’ education. The impact of the tuition increases that would occur under Clinton’s plan wouldn’t only hit students and their families; it would be hit the federal government, and thus every taxpayer in America.

SHOULD WE LEARN TO LOVE BIG BANKS?
Recent bank earnings reports show four of America’s largest banks – Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Bank of America – are lending at higher rates than three months ago. Fortune’s Chris Matthews says these figures should throw doubt on rhetoric from big bank “haters” because, “lending by private banks is more important to the real economy than policy changes at the Federal Reserve … because all Federal Reserve policy works through big banks before it makes it’s was to the broader economy.” With monetary policy having a limited impact, policymakers focused on pro-growth policies could start looking at ways to boost bank lending because, as Matthews points out, “that money is going to real people and business and is getting spent in the real economy.”

LONDON BANKS’ BREXIT PLAN
A recently leaked Deutsche Bank briefing document listed where the bank and its competitors may look to move their EU operations in response to Brexit. These banks’ London branches offer them access to the EU single market of 28 nations. But once the UK exits the EU, that so-called “bank passport” will expire. The confidential briefing clearly shows major banks are fully prepared for a post-Brexit world and their potential new EU homes like Ireland, France, Germany, and Luxembourg may stand to gain from the UK’s loss.

SYSTEM UPGRADE FOR FOIA? NO THANKS!
A new lawsuit against the FBI alleges the agency is deliberately using antiquated technology to slow down their responses to Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests. An MIT researcher who has been studying federal FOIA compliance claims that the FBI specifically conducts FOIA searches using the “universal index” portion of their legacy Automated Case Support system, which was originally deployed in 1995. This tactic is just another way federal agencies can legally obstruct FOIA requests to limit or delay access to information they would rather not share.

A $20 MILLION SEAT
Recently filed campaign finance reports show the second-place finisher in the Democratic primary for Maryland’s 8th congressional district, David Trone, spent more than $13.32 million on his campaign. The nine-way primary came in as the most expensive House race in the country thus far in the 2016 election cycle, with the candidates spending a combined $19.6 million. Trone’s campaign outspent the winner by over $11 million, with Democratic nominee State Sen. Jamie Raskin’s campaign spending topping out at $1.9 million. It’s just further proof that money alone doesn’t buy elections.

Mark Your Calendars

Monday, July 25 – Thursday, July 28: Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia

Delve CEO Jeff Berkowitz at the RNC on How Trump Can Capitalize on Hillary’s Vulnerabilities and “The Crucial Role of Strong American Leadership in the World.”

After a Fantastic First Six Months, Delve Is Excited To Add Another Key Player to Our Leadership Team.

Birds sing. Dogs bark. Children play. And political pundits make predictions. They just cannot help themselves. It’s a function that comes as naturally to them as breathing. (A GOP communicator I spoke with over a month ago vociferously declared to me, “Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee.”) Now that a Clinton-Trump 2016 matchup is virtually assured, here’s my advice to the pundits: you don’t always have to pretend you have all the answers. After considering the groundbreaking nature of the 2016 presidential election, the smartest people in politics aren’t making up answers; they’re asking questions.

Here are four things we DON’T KNOW about this election (and likely won’t really be answered until Wednesday, November 9th).

1. Who will win?

A diet of cable news commentators with a sprinkling of opinion columnists would have you believe Hillary Clinton is on her way to trouncing Donald Trump in the general election. The more rational of these observers tend to support the claim by pointing out that, while Clinton is unpopular, Trump is more unpopular. The reality is this is an unprecedented election where both major party candidates have shattered records with their net unfavorability ratings. It certainly seems possible that the messaging of these two campaigns could turn into a proverbial race to the bottom to see who can boost the other’s negative ratings more by Election Day. How that translates into mood, turnout and issue prioritization of the electorate is anyone’s guess.

2. Where will “Bernie or Bust” and “Never Trump” voters go?

The GOP is just beginning the process of unifying around Trump and the Democrats will have to do the same. Some have already discussed the strange possible alliance between Sanders’ base of support and Trump. Likewise, there are segments of the Republican Party who have vowed #NeverTrump who may never fall in line. Keep in mind, the Koch brothers have refused to back any candidate thus far, and while they have traditionally backed Republican candidates, their true ideology is far more libertarian. It remains to be seen how both groups go about consolidating support behind their nominees and what degree of success they find, but securing the support of the disaffected factions left over from their fractious primaries will prove crucial in November. The ultimate wildcard, for instance, could be the Libertarian Party making the politically savvy move of nominating former Republican New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson and him qualifying for the general election debates.

3. Should we trust polling?

For the reasons listed above, polling may prove especially unreliable in this election. Pollsters may also find themselves scrambling for updated and untested polling models to reflect the huge questions of turnout 2016 poses. The Republican primaries and caucuses brought out droves of new voters, all of whom may not be accounted for in existing polling models. All of this comes at a time when the polling industry is already defending its credibility after failures to accurately predict electoral outcomes in 2012 and 2014.

4. How will these candidates impact other campaigns?

Much of the supposed conventional wisdom seems to suggest Trump’s unfavorability at the top of the Republican ticket is going to leading to the GOP losing the Senate and possibly the House of Representatives. This fails to take into account that other piece of political conventional wisdom: all politics is local. No one can predict the variations of split tickets that may be cast at the ballot box in this election. Keep in mind, as just one example, the same Indiana electorate that backed Donald Trump also nominated Mitch McConnell-backed Todd Young for the U.S. Senate over House Freedom Caucus member Martin Stutzman. Some Republican candidates have personalities and histories with their constituents that overtake any “nationalization” of their race. Other Republican candidates may actually be helped by Trump’s nomination because of the demographics of their specific districts or states. The bottom line is that it’s presumptuous to simply predict that Trump will cost Republicans the Senate and hurt all candidates down ticket.

Election season is a lot like March Madness basketball. Every season it comes around and something unpredictable happens and everyone proclaims this is the truly paradigm shattering year. This is usually hyperbole, but every once in a while it’s actually true. This is one of those years. That’s why news consumers should view all predictions with an extra dose of skepticism. If your friends ask you what you think is going to happen between now and Election Day, the only smart answer is: “I don’t know.”