FEC Filings, Big Data, And Supreme Snafus
Here’s What You Need to Know
With the annual FEC year-end reports due this coming Sunday for all federally registered political organizations, our own Managing Director, Lloyd Miller, has outlined the top four things to watch in the Presidential campaigns’ reports:
- Campaign Spending: How a campaign is spending their money will show what level of operational efficiency a campaign is working at. Campaign expenditures should be focused on things that generate votes, volunteers, or more dollars.
- Airtime Reserved – And Paid For? If a campaign has paid for the airtime that its claimed its reserved, it shows a level of financial security. If they haven’t, there’s still at least one very large outstanding bill somewhere in HQ.
- Debt: How much debt a campaign carries will help show how well they are budgeting and spending their money. Looking at the debt also helps show what money the campaign really has to spend down the road.
- Burn Rate: Burn rate measures how quickly a campaign is spending the funds it is raising (usually talked about as a percentage of money spent vs. how much they’ve raised). This will show whether or not a campaign is spending money faster than it can raise it.
As the 2016 Presidential election goes on, the Delve team will be producing a series of posts just like this one to help point out what the campaigns and their strategies can teach us about effective research and communications techniques. You can see them all as they’re posted on our Medium publication, Delve In.
News You Can Use
IT MIGHT BE A JUNGLE OUT THERE
Daily Kos raises the alarm in Arizona, where a former Democratic state Attorney General and a top advisor to former Republican Gov. Jan Brewer have joined forces with a Texas billionaire to promote a ballot initiative instituting a California-style “top-two” jungle primary system. However, Daily Kos notes, “Arizona voters resoundingly rejected a similar measure by a two-to-one margin in 2012, and the state Republican Party has already expressed its sharp opposition to this effort.”
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BIG GOV VS. BIG DATA
Tech firms who rely on access to online data are feeling the heat at home and abroad. The Hill reports, “Advocates are pressing the Federal Communications Commission to quickly propose strong Internet privacy rules,” which could impact companies like Comcast, Verizon and AT&T. Meanwhile, big data firms’ ability to operate in the EU is in jeopardy due to a Congressional logjam over a new safe harbor agreement. This issue is bleeding into politics, with Jim Gilliam, CEO of NationBuilder, a nonpartisan online political organizing platform warning, “The uncertainty in the EU right now is definitely hurting us with signing new customers.”
TTIP’S ONE PERCENTERS
Researchers published a study of public sentiment surrounding the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership by looking at tweets related to the deal over a one-month period. The result was grim for the trade deal Obama hopes to conclude this year. Favorable tweets regarding the deal made up just 1% of all tweets discussing the topic, leaving the other 99% squaring in opposition. Social media has proven its ability to mobilize grassroots support and opposition, so deal supporters will need to step up with Twitter game.
SAY IT AIN’T SO, CBO
The Wall Street Journal breaks down the key info from the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent release, and it doesn’t look good: “The share of the U.S. economy going to interest payments on the debt will more than double in 10 years…The public debt is growing faster than our economy…Debt is on an unsustainable path even before it reaches 100% of GDP…Recent legislation has made things worse, not better.” Tax and budget expert Ryan Ellis argues in Forbes that spending, not taxes, is the culprit.
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INCORRECT THE RECORD
Earlier this month, the Clinton Super PAC Correct the Record attempted to offer “off the record” story pitches to the Burlington Free Press, but CTR press secretary Daniel Wessel clearly forgot to set the ground rules before he emailed The Free Press an article on Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy “hit Bernie on guns today” while offering to share more info on this and other negative Sanders stories.
WATCHDOG ON A LEASH
As The Daily Caller reports: “If Anne Weismann was still chief counsel at the progressive watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), she says that without a doubt she would have hit back at the State Department for improperly denying her December 2012 Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for information on Hillary Clinton’s emails accounts.” Instead David Brock, a Clinton supporter who runs the pro-Clinton super PAC Correct the Record, and now runs the show at CREW as well, responded to the improper denial with “deafening silence.”
SUPER PAC FREE PASS
As The Center for Public Integrity reports, “thanks to a quirk in federal law,” super PACs have “the power to withhold their January donors’ names until well after the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries are conducted next month” by switching to monthly filing. CPI notes this move could keep secret “the potentially massive amounts of money the donors are contributing in order to affect the outcome of those crucial contests” in Iowa and New Hampshire.
SANDERS’ SCOTUS SNAFU
Last week, Sen. Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign tweeted: “Any Supreme Court nominee of mine will make overturning Citizens United one of their first decisions.” While it is likely that the makeup of the Court will be shaped by the next presidential election, Sanders seriously misunderstands how the Court works. Justices are not allowed to set their own schedule and cases cannot be heard unless two parties have genuine conflict and take their case to the Court. At least, as TPM assures its generally left-leaning readers, “there’s nearly a year between now and the presidential election, so Sanders has plenty of time to educate himself about how the Supreme Court functions if he becomes the Democratic nominee.”
DON RUMSFELD, MOBILE GAMER
At 83, former Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld has unveiled a mobile game app that will introduce “Churchill Solitaire” to new generations of players. In a Medium post, the former Secretary warned it “is not a game for everyone. It takes patience and perseverance, cunning and concentration, and strategy and sacrifice.” Just like Brickbreaker!
Mark Your Calendars
Thursday, January 28 – Fox News GOP Debate
Sunday, January 31 – FEC Year-End Reports
Monday, February 1 – Iowa Caucuses
Tuesday, February 9 – New Hampshire Primary
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