Election Questions, Hiding Your Bonus, and Getting Arrested
Here’s What You Need to Know
Political pundits have been wrong about nearly every prediction they’ve made this election cycle. But with the 2016 stage set with Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump as the presumptive nominees of their respective parties, pundits are continuing to make plenty of prognostications. The smartest people in politics aren’t making up answers; they’re asking questions.
In a new Medium post, Delve’s Executive Vice President Matt Moon put together the top 4 things we DON’T KNOW about the 2016 presidential election:
- Who will win? A diet of cable news commentators and opinion columnists would have you believe Hillary Clinton is on her way to trouncing Donald Trump in the general election. The standard rationale suggests that, while Clinton is unpopular, Trump is more unpopular. The reality is this is an unprecedented election where both major party candidates have shattered records with their net unfavorability ratings. How that translates into mood, turnout, and issue prioritization of the electorate is anyone’s guess.
- Where will “Bernie or Bust” and “Never Trump” voters go? The GOP is just beginning the process of unifying around Trump and the Democrats will have to do the same around Hillary (assuming no indictment). It remains to be seen how both parties approach unity and what degree of success they find, but securing the support of the disaffected factions left over from their fractious primaries will prove crucial in November – especially if the Libertarian Party make the politically savvy move of nominating former Republican New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson and he is able to qualify for the general election debates.
- Should we trust polling? For all of the reasons listed above polling may prove especially unreliable in this election. Pollsters may also find themselves scrambling for updated and untested polling models to reflect the huge questions of turnout 2016 poses. The Republican primaries and caucuses brought out droves of new voters, all of whom may not be accounted for in existing polling models.
- How will these candidates impact other campaigns? Much of the supposed conventional wisdom seems to suggest Trump’s unfavorability at the top of the Republican ticket is going to lead to the GOP losing the Senate and possibly the House of Representatives. This fails to take into account that other piece of political conventional wisdom: all politics is local. There could certainly be some races that may actually be helped by Trump as the nominee because of the demographics of their specific districts or states. It’s presumptuous to simply predict that Trump will cost Republicans the Senate and hurt all candidates down ticket.
This election cycle, above all others, savvy political observers should approach all predictions with an extra dose dose skepticism. If your friends ask you what you think is going to happen between now and Election Day, the only smart answer is: I don’t know.
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News You Can Use
NESTLE’S NOODLE NIGHTMARE
When it comes to a company bungling a crisis by “misread[ing] a fast-moving situation at every point,” Nestle has learned the hard way. The company’s Maggi 2-minute noodles, a staple of their $1.6 billion share in India’s food products market, went from being one of the nation’s most trusted brands to a national pariah. The situation, which began as a minor regulatory annoyance regarding a batch of Maggi noodles that failed testing by India’s central food regulator, spiraled into a public relations disaster costing the company half a billion dollars. This led to public outcry and an eventual ban of the product, as well as a new case study emphasizing what not to do in a corporate communications nightmare.
RADICAL BANKERS
Mike Cagney, CEO of the fintech company SoFi, along with many of his peers in the fintech industry are seeking to do to banking and loans what Amazon did to books and Uber did to taxis: move it to an on-demand service right on your smartphone. Cagney claims, “There is going to be a seismic redistribution of market cap in the banking world,” and traditional banks “won’t see it coming until its done.” Some banks have expressed interest in simply purchasing firms like SoFi and bringing them into the fold of traditional banking. But fintech executives, like Cagney, have thus far resisted this approach as they remain committed to fundamentally disrupting the banking industry rather than simply joining it.
HOW CONSERVATISM CAN BEAT POVERTY
Is anti-poverty policy the next great American import from Britain? In a recent op-ed, former senior advisor to UK Prime Minister David Cameron, Steve Hilton, explained how he helped craft the UK Conservative government’s successful strategy on combatting poverty. Cameron’s approach focused on individual families and their needs, rather than the traditional approach of clunky bureaucratic systems that address individuals as case numbers within a disconnected structure of counselors and social workers. Hilton writes that the key to the conservative approach on issues like poverty lies in efforts by politicians and the private sector alike to, “help make the world more human.”
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CRITICS BURNING SIGAR
The chief taxpayer watchdog for government development programs in Afghanistan, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) John Sopko, is facing criticism over the accuracy of some of his bombastic claims of mismanagement in Pentagon programs. The accusations suggest Sopko “spun the facts in pursuit of an appealing soundbite.” Lawmakers overseeing the efforts have thus far been careful about engaging in open criticism, but one former senior DoD official said, “God knows there is no lack of need for an objective assessment of the Afghan mission, but Sopko has turned his office into a cheap media operation that does real damage to due process and U.S. policy.” The SIGAR’s troubles show that, like a political candidate, government bureaucrats too can find themselves in hot water for fudging the figures for the sake of a headline.
THE REAL 1%
Last summer, Hillary Clinton vowed to rebuild the Democratic party across the nation through an unprecedented fundraising campaign to support state parties. Now, roughly nine months later, the reality is that less than 1% of the $61 million raised in the effort has actually trickled down to the state parties. Instead the money has primarily gone to fund the Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee. It seems the Democratic state parties have joined the ranks of the 1%, just not the one they thought they were joining. There has been a historical problem of presidential campaigns and national political committees, treating state and local level organizations as chess pieces instead of breeding grounds for grassroots support.
HIDE YOUR KIDS, HIDE YOUR BONUS
While some regulations are necessary to solve specific problems, other regulations are created by lawmakers in order to “never let a good crisis go to waste.” American Enterprise Institute senior fellow, Peter Wallison wrote a scathing critique of the latest proposed regulation restricting incentive pay on Wall Street. He argues that limitations suppress the risk-taking necessary to grow the economy and the new regulations are “based on the same false idea about the causes of the financial crisis that underlies Dodd-Frank, a law that has discouraged credit expansion and resulted in the 2% growth rate of the past seven years.” Regardless of one’s stance on Wall Street bonuses, it seems there should be little debate over the need for further study of the economic ramifications of these policies before they are simply foisted upon an industry.
LET’S GET ARRESTED
There are few things more effective than an arrest when it comes to attracting cameras and reporters, and environmentalists have caught on to this earned media tactic. Anti-fossil fuel groups in Colorado are upping the ante in their “leave it in the ground” campaign against fracking by recruiting protestors specifically willing to get arrested. A group called “Break Free Colorado” recently sent out an email to area college students calling on activists, “willing to risk arrest, nonviolent direct action” to attend a seminar apparently teaching them how to properly get arrested. With these groups now realizing protests themselves don’t guarantee news coverage, those who are targets of these tactics should prepare for this possibility.
MAPS WITHOUT BORDERS?
In an age where issue like TPP and Brexit dominate international news cycles, it’s useful to visualize the world through the lens of connections instead of borders. That’s what Parag Khanna of the Center on Asia and Globalization at the National University of Singapore did by producing a series of updated world maps that reflect the new reality of postmodern geopolitics in his new book Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization. Khanna’s maps focus the connectivity of nations, superficially tracking transportation, energy and communication infrastructure, the three areas Khanna argues are the most relevant for connectivity.
TTIP TROUBLE
Environmental groups are now adding fuel to the fire that is the growing skepticism over free trade. They have opposed the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) since the start of negotiations between U.S. and EU officials. But, after publishing leaked documents from the negotiation outlining several confidential details, Greenpeace claims TTIP will lead to lower food safety and environmental standards. U.S. trade officials asserted the group’s interpretation of the documents is “misleading at best and flat-out wrong at worst,” while EU officials described the issue as a “storm in a teacup.” While no one appears particularly concerned about the leak, both American and European negotiators feel the need to close on a deal before a new, potentially anti-free trade American President enters the equation.
Mark Your Calendars
Tuesday, May 10: Nebraska Republican Primary & West Virginia Primaries
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