Iran Protest Redux, the Emoji Lobby, and Waiving the Red Flag

Here’s What You Need To Know

While people around the world were celebrating Christmas and New Year’s, citizens in Iran were taking to the streets for the largest protests in that country since 2009’s Green Movement. There seems to be no end in sight to the unrest, as more people take part in the demonstrations, the regime takes new measures to suppress them, and violence increases. The outcome of these protests has the potential to dramatically alter America’s relationship with Iran, the broader geopolitical alignment in the Middle East, and the world.

Here’s what you need to know about the protests in Iran:

  1. How Did The Protests Start? Hundreds of people gathered in Iran’s second-largest city, Mashhad, last Thursday to protest the high prices of basic goods, high unemployment and inflation, and general lack of economic opportunity in the country. The Iran Nuclear Deal reached in 2015 was sold by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani as a way to end the country’s economic isolation and bring more prosperity to its people, but the promised benefits have not materialized, especially for poorer Iranians, because foreign investment has fallen short of predictions and access to financial capital remains limited. As the protests gained momentum, economic concerns have given way to grievances against the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the regime, and its expansionist foreign policy. The economy may have been the vehicle with which the protests began, but they are now challenging the very legitimacy of the regime.
  2. What Has Been The Iranian Regime’s Response? Security forces at first showed a degree of restraint, initially dispersing the crowd in Mashhad with water cannons and making few arrests. President Rouhani even stated that Iranians “are absolutely free to criticize the government and protest,” so long as they avoid violence. But that has given way to a crackdown as the protests spread, with more than 450 people arrested in Tehran alone, 22 dead, and access to popular social media platforms like Telegram and Instagram restricted. For its part, the regime has blamed its “enemies” for the unrest, believed to be a reference to Israel, the U.S., and Saudi Arabia.
  3. How Has The U.S. Responded? The Trump Administration was quick to praise the protesters and warn the regime that the world will be watching its response, which is in contrast to some European allies and the cautious approach of the Obama Administration during the 2009 protests. Trump’s response and his emphasis on human rights also gained the support of officials previously critical of him, although some – including former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Samantha Power – have used the protests as a means to criticize the President as a political hypocrite due to his so-called “travel ban,” a policy that blocks people from entering the U.S. from eight countries, including Iran.
  4. What Is Different From Prior Protests? Unlike the Green Movement, which was largely a middle-class affair, today’s protests include Iranians of all economic classes, a reality that may make it more difficult to suppress. In addition, the unrest in 2009 was due to electoral uncertainty while today’s unrest reflects a loss of faith in the clerical political system entirely. When he came to power, Rouhani was billed as a reformer, despite evidence to the contrary. Regardless of whether Rouhani’s “reform” administration is replaced due to the regime’s demise or swept aside during an extreme anti-reform crackdown, the experiment to reform the Islamic Republic’s government seems to have failed if it ever really began.
  5. What Else Can The U.S. And International Community Do? By following up sympathetic sentiments with action, the U.S. and its allies and partners can raise the costs for the regime’s clamp down. For example, new economic penalties against key institutions responsible for repression – such as the Central Bank and the Basij resistance force – can help, as well as increased United Nations pressure and free and open broadcasting to counter the regime’s claims.

It remains to be seen how long this unrest will continue, and whether more momentum will lead to greater kinetic activity. Should these demonstrations lead to the fall of the regime, they will – given the regime’s nefarious influence in the Middle East, North Korea, and Venezuela, coupled with its repeated violations of the 2015 nuclear deal – have the potential to be one of the most consequential geopolitical developments of the 21st century.

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