The Forgotten 95 Million and the War on Piano Teachers
Here’s What You Need To Know
This past week President-elect Trump had several conversations with foreign leaders that left many in the foreign policy elite feeling some mixture of apprehension, confusion, and full on terror. It is difficult to determine how many of these feelings stem from actual policy concerns versus the utterly disorienting effect of someone approaching their policy sphere with no regard for their perceived wisdom.
- Taiwan Talk: One of the “biggest” shake ups of the foreign policy status quo the President-elect has engaged in has been his “protocol-shattering” phone call with Taiwanese President Tsau Ing-wen. The majority of the foreign policy community has criticized the move as breaking from 1979’s “one China” policy in which official U.S.-Chinese diplomatic relations have been conducted exclusively with mainland China. However some experts have praised the move and view it as a positive step in how the new Administration may plan to use Taiwan as leverage to apply pressure to the Chinese government in response to everything from currency manipulation to cyberattacks on the U.S. The Chinese government has lodged an “official complaint,” but has yet to take any further steps.
- Foreign Policy Unfiltered: Another broader point many have made about the President-elect’s conversations with various world leaders is the decidedly casual and unfiltered nature of them. Whether it’s his offhand invitation to British Prime Minister Theresa May to visit Washington DC, or his compliments and offers to visit Pakistan and Kazakhstan, these unfiltered exchanges have drawn scrutiny of foreign policy elites, but yielded no actual issues. The President-elect has also rejected offers from the State Department to help facilitate the conversations, instead choosing to take care of the communications himself.
These latest foreign policy actions, as minor as they may seem, give good insight into exactly how Donald Trump will be conducting foreign policy. Much to the chagrin of the international relations establishment and the entrenched State Department bureaucracy, the President-elect does not seem interested in their sacred cows or simply conducting businesses as it has been conducted just because it’s how things have always been done.
This approach can have meaningful implications. For example, like many of his predecessors, Trump has pledged to move the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, a move sure to illicit cries of doomsday among foreign policy elites. Unlike his predecessors, however, Trump seems more likely to actually move the embassy. The arguments against it are weak and drenched in poor assumptions about what actually drives conflict in the region. Like his call with Taiwan, Trump seems unlikely to be cowed by diplomatic mandarins’ case against it.
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If Trump and his Administration are to continue challenging standard operating procedures and perceived wisdom of the State Department, potential Secretary of State choices like Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman, and Bob Corker seem to make less sense for the President-elect. Does Trump want an in-house contrarian to his instincts, or does he want a Secretary who can execute his policy views in Foggy Bottom? The answer to that question will likely be central to who wins the ongoing Celebrity Apprentice: State Department Edition.
For more on how the Trump Administration is coming together and what the policy implications will be, check out Delve’s new on-demand research service, The Administration Project.
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