DNC Convention Preview: What’s Hillary’s Message?​

This is the fourth and final analysis in a series of insights we’ve provided on different policy platform fights and other issues in the weeks leading up to the Republican and Democratic National Conventions.

Here’s What You Need To Know

All eyes are on Donald Trump’s nomination acceptance speech tonight. But we want to be the first to look ahead to next week’s Democratic National Convention and some unanswered questions the Democratic Party faces. The Clinton campaign has taken a decidedly sharp left turn on several issues with Democrats about to adopt their most liberal platform ever. They have adopted severe limits on natural gas production, an expansion of Obamacare with a so-called “public option,” and a call for a constitutional amendment to overturn the Citizens United Supreme Court decision. On other issues, like trade, the Clinton campaign has decided not to stray as far as Bernie Sanders would have liked her to.

But voters still place economic and national security issues at or near the top of their priority list, and there are fundamental questions on how the Clinton campaign will choose to address these topics at next week’s Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.

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  • What’s Hillary’s Theme? There’s no doubt that Donald Trump’s personality and his unconventional campaign tactics helped him win the Republican nomination. Yet his success also reflects his strategy of tapping into a theme that connects with Americans across the board: “Make America Great Again.” Meanwhile Hillary Clinton has campaigned under a banner of “I’m with her.” She has an agenda, but her campaign, like her slogan, has been all about Hillary Clinton, with no clear theme or message tying that agenda together. Will she use the Democratic National Convention to offer such a vision or will she stick to talking about what would be her “historic” election and depend on being the “anti-Trump”?
  • What’s Hillary’s Message On The Economy? As Delve Executive Vice President Matt Moon mentioned in a Medium post last month, “Clinton has placed her bets on President Obama’s personal popularity and his economic record” but must court “both ‘Bernie or Bust’ voters and ticket-splitting independents, both of whom are unhappy with the economy.” Many of the far-left positions Clinton has taken on taxes, energy, and health care are all subject to criticism for harming economic growth and job creation. How Clinton tries to square her agenda with the electorate’s number one issue of concern could be an impossible mission.
  • What’s Hillary’s Message On National Security? Promoting one’s foreign policy experience as events here and around the world showcase chaos and instability is like forcing a square peg into a round hole. According to a recent Suffolk University poll, nearly 54% of Americans feel less safe than they did 5-10 years ago. Yet we have heard very little from Hillary Clinton on how she would approach ISIS, global terrorism, and other national security issues. She could choose to continue to avoid this topic Americans care about deeply or surprise us with a national security message that will have to maneuver around her own record.

Conventions are used to “re-introduce” candidates and push narratives that will be used throughout the rest of the summer and fall as more Americans – especially undecided voters – start paying attention to the election. How Hillary Clinton uses next week’s convention will be a clear signal on both whether and how her campaign approaches the issues voters care about the most.

News You Can Use

HILLARY’S ECHO CHAMBER VEEPSTAKES
With Hillary Clinton announcing her Vice Presidential running mate any day now, we looked at the likely candidates and found how many times they appeared in major media publications along with the terms “Hillary Clinton” and “Vice President” over the past three months. The results:

  • Sen. Elizabeth Warren: 2,977 articles
  • Sen. Tim Kaine: 1,202 articles
  • Sen. Sherrod Brown: 846 articles
  • HUD Secretary Julian Castro: 769 articles
  • Sen. Cory Booker: 654 articles
  • Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack: 124 articles

Press mentions are just one of a host of factors to consider when guessing who Clinton may pick, but DC is certainly a place known to react to what is heard throughout its own echo chamber.

BIG SOFTWARE
Major industrial conglomerates like the multinational corporations that make up Big Pharma all had to start somewhere. And most of them began as startups between 1849 and 1901. Wired recently wrote that we could be seeing the birth of “Big Software,” with companies like Google, Amazon, and Apple similarly dominating their industry for the next century. Despite the negative connotation of conglomerates, they have had profoundly positive impacts on industries that thrive on innovation. They also provide an existing corporate structure to innovators, allowing great ideas to be fast tracked instead of forcing creators to start their own company. How future policymakers at the federal and state levels promote (or stymie) these conglomerates will be key to how much growth they provide to our economy.

HYPOCRISY, THY NAME IS DSCC
Several Democratic candidates in key U.S. Senate races are taking advantage of massive loopholes in the federal laws regulating coordination with super PACs by posting instructions for these outside groups on everything from messaging to which media markets to target. While the campaigns and super PACs are technically not allowed to communicate with each other, posting these messages publicly on their websites makes it legally permissible. All this while the Democratic Party standard bearer, Hillary Clinton, has publicly called for a constitutional amendment overturning the U.S. Supreme Court’s Citizens United ruling creating super PACs.

KREMLIN DISINFORMATION COOKBOOK
The East Stratcom Task Force, an organization set up in 2015 to combat Russian disinformation campaigns throughout Europe, recently released a new video outlining the Kremlin’s propaganda strategies in countries like Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. The strategy breaks down the steps into rehashing and manipulating old content, propping it up with a questionable “expert,” then using a dubious western media sources to cement the claims’ legitimacy. The video is just the latest in the group’s ongoing efforts to push back against pro-Kremlin news in the EU and its eastern partner countries.

THE COSTS OF CLINTON UNIVERSITY
Experts now say Hillary Clinton’s plan to allow most Americans to attend public universities at no cost may have the opposite of its intended effect and drive tuition higher. As the past several decades of expanded federal tuition subsidies and subsequent increases in college tuition have shown, universities simply readjust their prices to take into account what the government is willing to pay them for students’ education. The impact of the tuition increases that would occur under Clinton’s plan wouldn’t only hit students and their families; it would be hit the federal government, and thus every taxpayer in America.

SHOULD WE LEARN TO LOVE BIG BANKS?
Recent bank earnings reports show four of America’s largest banks – Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Bank of America – are lending at higher rates than three months ago. Fortune’s Chris Matthews says these figures should throw doubt on rhetoric from big bank “haters” because, “lending by private banks is more important to the real economy than policy changes at the Federal Reserve … because all Federal Reserve policy works through big banks before it makes it’s was to the broader economy.” With monetary policy having a limited impact, policymakers focused on pro-growth policies could start looking at ways to boost bank lending because, as Matthews points out, “that money is going to real people and business and is getting spent in the real economy.”

LONDON BANKS’ BREXIT PLAN
A recently leaked Deutsche Bank briefing document listed where the bank and its competitors may look to move their EU operations in response to Brexit. These banks’ London branches offer them access to the EU single market of 28 nations. But once the UK exits the EU, that so-called “bank passport” will expire. The confidential briefing clearly shows major banks are fully prepared for a post-Brexit world and their potential new EU homes like Ireland, France, Germany, and Luxembourg may stand to gain from the UK’s loss.

SYSTEM UPGRADE FOR FOIA? NO THANKS!
A new lawsuit against the FBI alleges the agency is deliberately using antiquated technology to slow down their responses to Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests. An MIT researcher who has been studying federal FOIA compliance claims that the FBI specifically conducts FOIA searches using the “universal index” portion of their legacy Automated Case Support system, which was originally deployed in 1995. This tactic is just another way federal agencies can legally obstruct FOIA requests to limit or delay access to information they would rather not share.

A $20 MILLION SEAT
Recently filed campaign finance reports show the second-place finisher in the Democratic primary for Maryland’s 8th congressional district, David Trone, spent more than $13.32 million on his campaign. The nine-way primary came in as the most expensive House race in the country thus far in the 2016 election cycle, with the candidates spending a combined $19.6 million. Trone’s campaign outspent the winner by over $11 million, with Democratic nominee State Sen. Jamie Raskin’s campaign spending topping out at $1.9 million. It’s just further proof that money alone doesn’t buy elections.

Mark Your Calendars

Monday, July 25 – Thursday, July 28Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia