The Rise of Tribes
What an election season it has been! And while the main event is just getting started, it has already overturned much of the accepted wisdom for public affairs professionals. We have a Republican nominee convicted of felonies and indicted for more and a Democratic nominee who received not a single vote in a single primary and spent the past three years viewed largely as an incapable politician.
Yet, despite both nominees shifting their positions on some of their respective bases’ orthodoxies, neither faced meaningful resistance in securing their nominations and both bases are showing marked enthusiasm for November. So how did we get here and what does it mean for public affairs professionals navigating their organizations or clients through the electoral chaos and whatever follows?
Tribalism has overtaken politics and policy, in which group identity and belonging trump political inputs and policy outputs. That means effective advocacy must begin with an understanding that policy influence is now deeply intertwined with navigating the complex and shifting dynamics, totems, and world views of the respective political tribes. Here’s what you need to know to adapt your organization to this new reality.
Subscribe to Receive Insights
"*" indicates required fields
Political Tribalism 101
While many agree tribalism has taken over American politics, there’s less consensus on why. Some commentators reflexively lump tribalism in with the rise of Donald Trump, but more nuanced takes point to deeper root causes. These include group identity dynamics, the rise of moralized identities, heightened emotion in politics, social media, and more.
Whatever the cause, what matters for public affairs professionals is understanding how deeply rooted these new dynamics have become. In this tribal environment, political stances have turned into moral battles, making common ground harder to find. The media’s own side-taking only adds fuel to the fire, ensuring each tribe can broadcast its message to followers and keep them in an echo chamber.
All Aboard the 2024 Tribalism Train
Today’s tribal leaders, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, represent just how divorced our politics have become from the old ways. These leaders aren’t just politicians; they represent intense, unshakeable loyalty that eclipses shared ideology and policy and survives political punches that would have knocked out past candidates. The examples are many:
Related Posts:
Despite multiple indictments and a felony conviction, Donald Trump’s supporters remain steadfast, driven by animosity toward their opponents. Not only did his conviction hardly register in polling data, but many voters say they would support him even if they believed he has committed his alleged crimes. When it comes to who they trust in the first place, Trump voters believe Trump more than they believe their “friends and family or religious leaders,” the very sort of people you’d expect to be in a typical person’s tribe. Add Trump’s ability to shift on mainstay Republican issues, like embracing electric vehicles or reversing his stance on banning TikTok, and the picture of Trump as a deep-rooted tribal leader becomes more clear.
On the other side of the aisle, Kamala Harris’ quick ascent reflects her own side’s deep tribal loyalty. Remember when Democrats had concerns about her viability as a candidate and her image? Or the moment when Democrats expected the chance to vote on Joe Biden’s replacement at the convention? These qualms were quickly washed aside when Biden dropped out and anointed Harris his heir. Even green groups who pressured Biden throughout his tenure now want to ensure they don’t “sabotage her.” Harris, too, is flipping on mainstay progressive positions like fracking and immigration without serious pushback (possibly because voters remain unconvinced of the shifts).
Pick a side—the middle ground is quicksand. The so-called “moderate middle” is hard to find these days among voters and even harder to find among elected officials. Inadequate loyalty to your tribe results in increasing isolation. Just ask Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, or former Representatives Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger. The wave of over 50 congressional retirements in the 2024 election cycle also reflects growing dissatisfaction with the polarized climate driven by the tribal warfare.
How to Run a Business in a Tribal Environment
For businesses, understanding these dynamics is crucial. Tribal loyalties are unpredictable and prone to sudden shifts, as they aren’t grounded in consistent ideology or policy. Accommodating these loyalties can lead businesses down a complicated path with unanticipated consequences. Instead, public affairs professionals must help their companies navigate the nuances of this divided environment, focusing on strategies that maintain broad appeal without getting swept away by the shifting tides of tribalism. Here are some pointers:
Traditional election indicators have lost their meaning. Metrics like economic data and unemployment rates no longer predict election outcomes or voter behavior as reliably as they once did. Even more subjective questions asking voters if the country is on the wrong track or if they approve of a President’s job approval are less helpful in determining which party is likely to prevail. Instead, public affairs professionals now need to pay attention to a host of other indicators—from fundraising to grassroots infrastructure to momentum shifts to swing-state developments—as they try to discern who will come out ahead on election day, even while recognizing their best efforts to predict may not matter in the era of photo finishes.
Beware embracing coded language that forces you toward one team and away from the other team. These days, specific words, phrases, and slogans are not just forms of communication—they are markers of where individuals and groups stand on the political spectrum, even if they seem like reasonable principles on their surface. Phrases like “Make America Great Again” or “Black Lives Matter” encapsulate entire worldviews, designed to evoke strong emotional responses. While these slogans can effectively mobilize a base, they can also alienate those outside the group, leading to increased polarization. So your company’s embrace of “diversity” or “merit” for instance, could unintentionally associate you with progressive or conservative values. Language has become shorthand for a broader set of beliefs and values, allowing individuals to quickly identify friend or foe.
You’re either with them, or against them. If your marketing campaign, product launch, or hiring policy cross the behavioral norms of one of the tribes, you’ll quickly find yourself at odds with that tribe—which is a big problem if that tribe is part of your consumer base. Just ask Bud Light, Chick-fil-a, Harley-Davidson, and many other companies who have faced tribal backlash. Political debate is even bubbling up within companies themselves, despite employers trying to keep the workplace politics-free.
Ride the Tribal Tide
As we head into the 2024 election and beyond, the complexities of political tribalism will only intensify, making it essential for businesses to stay informed and adaptable. The old playbook for navigating political landscapes is outdated; instead, companies must learn to ride the tribal tide, recognizing the deep-seated loyalties driving public sentiment. Understanding the full range of your stakeholders and which tribes they call home is key to survival. At Delve, we’re here to help you guide your organizations through these challenges, offering the insights and intelligence you need to respond effectively to these tribal forces. Together, we’ll help you anticipate the election’s outcomes and their broader implications, ensuring your business remains resilient and responsive in a rapidly shifting political environment.